AQW 4693/17-22

Ms Paula Bradshaw
Alliance Party
South Belfast

Tabled Date: 10/06/2020
Answered On Date: 25/06/2020
Priority Written: No

Question:
To ask the Minister of Health how direct payments will operate over the period to 30 September 2020, particularly with regard to carers for children who are shielding.

Answer:

The estimated reproduction number, R published by the Department of Health represents the consensus view of the Northern Ireland Covid-19 modelling group.

This is based on estimates of R produced by a number of UK modelling groups using a range of different models, in addition to an NI developed model. The NI model derives R using an extended SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) compartmental model and based on the mathematical relationship between the value of R and the growth rate of an indicator of infection. The model currently uses the number of Covid-19 positive hospital in-patients and admissions, and the main assumption is that an individual with Covid-19 is infectious for 6 days. This assumption is based on extensive published data relating to the natural history of the period of infectiousness.

The value of R as an indicator of the trajectory of the virus remains below one as the incidence of Covid-19 in Northern Ireland continues to fall. This means that greater reliance is now being placed on other indicators such as the number of new positive cases.