AQW 23957/17-22

Ms Paula Bradshaw
Alliance Party
South Belfast

Tabled Date: 08/10/2021
Answered On Date: 13/10/2021
Priority Written: Yes

Question:
To ask the Minister of Health, given his statement to the Committee for Health on 30 September 2021 that the Executive policy to maintain R<1, and taking into account (a) the limited practical capacity for ventilation during the winter months, and (b) the medical evidence provided by the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser to support the re-opening of nightclubs without mitigation from 31 October 2021, to detail the likely impact of such re-openings on levels of community transmission of the virus and the R number.

Answer:

The Executive, when making decisions on easing restrictions and the impact on the R-rate, takes into account the scientific and medical evidence and also the impacts of the restrictions on the economy and society. The Executive weighs up the totality of the effect each restriction can have in combination with other restrictions in reducing the rate of infections of COVID-19. Modelling information on which decisions on restrictions are based indicates a range of scenarios regarding transmission and hospitalisations.

There is no specific modelling for nightclubs and it would not be possible to produce at such level. The aim of the restrictions, whether in regulation or guidance, is to ensure the trajectory of the disease mirrors the optimistic scenario as much as possible, and at a minimum remains lower than the worst case scenario. Real-time data compared to modelling suggests that in this context, the restrictions to date have been effective in achieving their aims. It is not always possible to disaggregate the precise impact on the rate of transmission of the virus in the community for each of the individual restrictions on their own.

Nightclubs are high risk settings with poor ventilation, face coverings difficult to use, loud noise and physical activity. The cohort most likely to visit nightclubs are also associated with a lower uptake of vaccination. The use of measures recently discussed by the Executive, such as proof of vaccination, proof of a negative test or proof of recovery from Covid-19, will help mitigate this risk however it is important to point out that it is important we all act in a responsible manner to help reduce the risk of transmission as much as possible.