AQW 39151/22-27
Ms Claire Sugden
Independent
East Londonderry
Tabled Date: 27/01/2026
Answered On Date: 09/02/2026
Priority Written: No
Question:
To ask the Minister of Education to detail any (i) demand modelling; or (ii) forecasting, undertaken by the Education Authority before approving the establishment of new Specialist Provisions in Mainstream Schools.
Revised Answer:
The Education Authority undertakes both demand modelling and forecasting to inform decisions on establishing new Specialist Provisions in Mainstream Schools. In planning for September 2026, forecast figures were derived using assumptions based on historical data, expert insights, and anticipated trends. Current data relating to children with special educational needs, referrals for assessment, and pupils at various stages of the Code of Practice have been considered. This data continues to be reviewed as milestones are reached and pupil mapping is completed. Planning assumptions project need in advance of all relevant information becoming available, allowing pressures to be identified early. The modelling accounts for children in transitional year groups, children recommended for placement changes, and new children going through statutory assessment. A key unknown factor remains the type of placement required, identified only through Annual Review or statutory assessment completion. While the overall school-age population is decreasing, the percentage of children with SEN is increasing. The EA is working to create approximately 900 places required for September. New places already in planning, combined with allowances for forecasting variability and demand being met through other means, reduces this by around 500. A shortfall of circa 350-400 placements remains, particularly across Belfast, Derry City and Strabane, Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon, Lisburn and Castlereagh, Mid Ulster, and North Down and Ards. Work continues at pace to progress additional projects and assess accommodation solutions.
|