AQW 41812/22-27

Mr Danny Donnelly
Alliance Party
East Antrim

Tabled Date: 04/03/2026
Answered On Date: 02/04/2026
Priority Written: No

Question:
To ask the Minister of Health whether his Department has modelled the projected need of social care provision for the next 20 years.

Answer:

Northern Ireland’s social care system is experiencing increasing pressure due to demographic change, workforce shortages, and rising complexity of need. The proportion of the population aged 65+ is projected to continue rising significantly over the next two decades, with a particularly sharp increase expected among those aged 85+, who are the highest users of social care. My Department’s previous and current strategic reports have highlighted the need for longterm planning and modelling to ensure future sustainability.

My Department, through the Social Care Collaborative Forum established in 2023 has already implemented Early Review Teams and Care Line Live to create efficiencies in homecare provision. Further work has commenced under the Sustainable Systems Implementation Group to consider a new model of homecare that is fit for the future.

My Department established a Social Care Fair Work Forum in 2023 and I have given a commitment to making social care a real living wage sector.

My Department completed a consultation on Adult Social Care Reform in 2024 which gathered public, provider, and sector feedback and has supported the case for a system-wide overhaul of social care services.

The Social Care Workforce Strategy 2025–2035 sets out a vision and actions to develop a sustainable social care workforce over the next ten years.

My Department has also been planning for the increase in demand for social care by considering investment in preventative care and early intervention, expansion of communitybased and agefriendly services, robust workforce planning and retention strategies, support for carers and digital innovation. The Department’s HSC Reset Plan, published on 9 July 2025, sets the immediate direction for stabilising and reforming the Health and Social Care (HSC) system. It outlines the initial threeyear strategy of Stabilisation, Reform and Delivery, with significant implications for adult social care.

The Reset Plan commits to building a neighbourhoodcentred model of social care, embedding early intervention through integrated Neighbourhood Teams delivering services closer to home. The Plan emphasises enhanced use of digital tools and data, supporting better management of home care packages, improved scheduling, and more efficient deployment of staff. This aligns with digitalisation already underway across Trusts. The Plan outlines the need for a wholesystem, crossgovernment approach connecting health, housing, education and employment.

Adult social care reform is ongoing, phased, and constrained by budget pressures, but the work I have referenced; SCCF, Fair Work Forum, Reset Plan, are now in place to progress delivery. Full system-wide reform will take time but early progress is happening.

Social care already represents a substantial portion of Health and Social Care (HSC) expenditure. Any modelling will assess workforce requirements over the next 20 years, including projected gaps, training needs, and potential cost pressures. Our longterm modelling will help quantify future costs and inform budget planning, reform proposals, and investment decisions.