Official Report: Minutes of Evidence

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Without further ado, we welcome from the Department for Infrastructure Ms Sian Kerr, director of transport planning and policy; Mr James Redmond, head of transport planning and modelling; and Mr David Strain, head of the transport decarbonisation unit.

David, I hear that this could be the last time that you will be at the Committee. [Laughter.]

It is not because of anything that I have done, David.

Mr David Strain (Department for Infrastructure): I hope that you are not pre-empting what I am going to say. [Laughter.]

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): David, I heard on the grapevine that you are retiring. Is that true?

Mr Strain: Yes.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): On behalf of the Committee, I thank you for the evidence that you have given to us and wish you well. Sometimes, people say that you do not retire when you retire, but I wish you well for the future.

Mr Strain: Thank you, Chair and Committee. It has been a pleasure.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): It is not because of anything that I have done. [Laughter.]

I also welcome Orla Gray, head of transport policy.

As usual, we have your written evidence and a copy of your PowerPoint presentation. If you do not mind briefly going through that for five or 10 minutes, I will come to members' questions after that.

Ms Sian Kerr (Department for Infrastructure): Thank you, Chair and members, for the opportunity to brief the Committee on the Department's approach to transport decarbonisation.

I will briefly provide some background on the evolution of the Department's approach to transport decarbonisation. 'Planning for the Future of Transport: Time for Change' was published in June 2021 and outlined how the Department's priorities for the future of transport could be supported by improvements in the planning, management and development of our transport network. In its approach to tackling carbon reduction, the Department recognised that it needed to be ambitious in tackling climate change. Central to that approach was encouraging the use, where possible, of more energy efficient modes of transport and active travel to reduce carbon emissions. At that stage, the hierarchy for reducing the carbon impact of transport emphasised that substituting trips would be the most impactful step, followed by shifting modes — for example, using the bus instead of the car — and, finally, switching fuels.

When the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 was introduced, it significantly altered the context for planning for and delivering transport here. Given that surface transport is the second biggest emitting sector here, we have a significant role to play in helping Northern Ireland reach net zero by 2050. We realised early on that we had limited Northern Ireland-specific data available to help inform decision-making, so we set about developing our own transport emissions model (TEM). That model, which is deemed to be the best in class across these islands, has helped us to better understand Northern Ireland's baseline emissions and how the transport fleet functions and differs depending on its locality; for example, in urban and rural areas.

Our modelling has demonstrated that focusing on removing car emissions by transitioning from petrol and diesel cars to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) has a much bigger impact than previously envisaged. When that is combined with further actions to switch other vehicles to zero-emission fuels, such as light goods vehicles or vans and heavy goods vehicles, buses and coaches, it ensures that the transport sector can fully decarbonise by 2050.

You have been provided with a presentation on the Department's transport pathway to net zero, and James will shortly talk you through that. It is important to highlight the fact that the switch to zero-emissions vehicles, whilst the most impactful from a decarbonisation point of view, is only one of three policies in the area. Shifting modes of transport from private car journeys to more sustainable travel alternatives, such as public transport and active travel, clearly has a role to play, especially in our urban areas. In the short term, that helps to reduce the number of journeys undertaken by petrol and diesel cars while having many other benefits, such as for our health and well-being. Furthermore, we are mindful of the fact that 16% of households do not have access to a car and rely on public transport. The third policy relates to reducing the need for some of our journeys and takes account of the increase in online services and in the practice of combining journeys, for example.

I hope that that has provided some useful high-level context. If the Chair is content, I will hand over to James.

Mr James Redmond (Department for Infrastructure): Thank you, Sian, and thanks again to the Committee for the invite to provide this presentation on our approach to transport decarbonisation. The purpose of the presentation is to give you an overview of the approach that we, as a Department, have taken to decarbonisation in particular, as the sectoral lead for transport. As Sian said, our approach has been driven by robust data analysis and modelling, and its outcomes have been grounded in a strong evidence base.

I will not dwell on the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022. It set legally binding net zero targets for 2050 and interim targets for 2030 and 2040. It is important to highlight the fact that those targets are not sector-specific; they apply across all sectors in the NI economy, ensuring a collective responsibility and partnership across all Departments. Under the Act, DFI, as the transport sector lead, has a responsibility and legal duty to contribute to achieving those targets, which include reaching net zero by 2050. That will be demonstrated through the sectoral plans and the climate action plans that are being developed or have been developed to date.

When we set out on this journey, it was important to understand what the targets meant, not only for us, as a Department, but for the transport sector. We needed to understand how and by how much we were expected to reduce our emissions and what emissions meant to the transport sector. We needed to understand our baseline emissions, which we did by interrogating what they were and what the main contributors were.

I will give a brief outline of the transport sector. It is the second main contributor to Northern Ireland climate emissions, making up 18% of the total. Of that 18%, 88% relates to the tailpipe and 63% relates to the car passenger. That follows from how we behave as a society, how we travel and our typical journeys. Typically, 69% of our journeys are undertaken in private passenger cars.

It is important to review where we have come from and where we need to get to. The white line on the graph that you can see on the screen shows what we have been doing for the past 30 years. You can see that the white line has bobbed around the 1990 baseline figure. We will be reporting on that as we go along the journey to 2050. The yellow line is the trajectory of where we need to go. The small blip in the white line is what happened in 1990 — no, 1999 — no, 20 —.

Ms Kerr: 2020.

Mr Redmond: Yes, 2019 and 2020. During COVID, restrictions on how we travelled had an impact on the level of carbon that was produced. A lot of people were staying at home, so the number of journeys reduced. It is about understanding that and understanding the trend.

Sian mentioned the three policy areas: switching fuels, shifting modes and reducing journeys. We need to understand how we get onto the yellow trajectory: what would be most impactful and what scale of change is required? The big dilemma is in what that will look like and how we can do it fairly and equitably? That is critical. One area that we focused on was the switch in fuels. That, along with shifting in the modes and reducing journeys, is linked to our transport plans in relation to our urban areas and how we can shift that travel whilst recognising that there is still a need for travel for people by car.

The UK Climate Change Committee provided guidance and recommendations in March 2023 on the trajectory and on how we were going to achieve the set targets for net zero in the 2030s and 2040s. However, that was all caveated by the fact that Northern Ireland's data was very poor. Essentially, our data was calculated on the basis of what was happening in GB. Very early on, there was a recognition that Northern Ireland is a different beast from across the water, not only in scale but in our motorway and rail networks, the fuels that we use and the urban/rural split. You can see that in the figures for the proportion of vehicles that are diesel: it is around the 55% mark here compared with fewer than 40% in the rest of GB and fewer than 20% in areas of southern England. There is a very different picture here, which needed to be reflected in our plan.

What did we do? We set about developing our own bespoke transport emissions model. There is a lot of data that underpins that, but we are not in the space of Excel documents here: we are in the space of big data. Essentially, we have built a stock model for Northern Ireland. A stock model understands the size, type, the fuel type of all the vehicles that we have in Northern Ireland, taking account of our scale, our MOT system and the fact that we have one public transport authority. So, there was a wealth of data that we were able to use in the stock model to allow us to understand how long vehicles are retained in the stock, how they leave the market and how new vehicles affect our emissions overall.

We are in the space of big data here. We are churning through the data — about half a billion data points — that underpins a lot of those models. That is the scale of what we are looking at and the granular detail that we are able to get into. That has given us real insight into how our emissions will change over time due to our decarbonisation policy. As a Department, we will report on and monitor our progress and effectiveness against our measures. The data has allowed us to understand and model that progress and given us the evidence base to underpin why we are doing certain things and understand what works and what does not.

Those are insights on the data that underpin the policy. We were able to test a number of different scenarios to see what influence transitioning to ZEVs by 2035 and the vehicle emissions trading scheme (VETS) will have on the stock. As we approach 2035, all new vehicles will have to be EVs. Using trend data to understand how vehicles behave, we are able to map and understand how, over time, we can decarbonise. It is interesting to see that we have a full stock model, so it is not just in relation to our passenger cars. We are also looking at our HGV traffic and how we can influence that going down the line towards 2040. Through the graphs that you can see, we are trying to illustrate where we are today with diesel, petrol and hybrid vehicles and how, over time, they will leave the stock and EVs will enter the stock. Where are we today with the decarbonisation pathway? The modelling that underpins all of this allows us to quantify and understand what our contributions will be over time: on a yearly basis, on a carbon-budget basis or on a target basis.

It is important to mention that not all sectors will decarbonise at the same rate. We are all at different points on that journey, but we have an evidence-based pathway to show how we will contribute to decarbonisation and achieve net zero by 2050.

What you will see in where we are currently in the transition of vehicles and the turnover of vehicles to EV is that we are on the trajectory towards net zero by 2050, but you will see that there is a slight gap there. There is still a residual impact that relates to HGV traffic, but this has allowed us to take a sensible approach to what we need to do and how we can accelerate and look at other policy measures to bring that black line further down towards net zero.

The Department's TEM is a very powerful policy development tool that has put us a in strong position to quantify, forecast and monitor. There has been recognition from all the DfT analysts and the Climate Change Committee analysts about the level of detail, and also the level of detail that we have here for Northern Ireland. The foundation pathway indicates significant reductions in emissions over time as the vehicle fleet decarbonises with a transition to low- and zero-emission vehicle technology. We have not lost sight of the other policy measures in relation to that shift mode and the reduced journeys, but this has allowed us, for this carbon budget period, to understand what our contribution in this first five-year period is and to do further policy development, particularly on the transport plans, to understand how we can accelerate and bring that black line down further to show further developments.

In summary, the transport emissions model has given us a good insight and has shown how we can take opportunities in size and scale, but it has also been really beneficial for other parties, particularly an organisation such as the Climate Change Committee, which is now using the data that we underpin. We are also using that data to influence the demand with the System Operator for Northern Ireland (SONI) and NIE. We are providing that one data source, and that is being used widely across Departments, but also by other organisations, to inform what they need to do down the line. That is a very quick summary of where we are. Thank you for listening.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): No problem. Thank you. I am flabbergasted at the amount of data and work that has been going on to try to collate all that, because it will have been a mammoth task to try to get all that together. I am under no illusion about the legislative need from a departmental point of view. I was looking at the PowerPoint. From my point of view, during COVID, my car did not know what had hit it when it had to sit in the driveway for a prolonged period of time. The figures in the graph that show where we need to get to are quite stark, yet there were not as many journeys on the road. We all know how quiet the roads were during COVID. It is quite scary thinking about how we will reach that target, and, at this moment in time, the main policies are the VETS and the ZEV mandate. From a departmental point of view, do you honestly think that we will reach those targets for 2030, 2040 and 2050? It has been a mammoth task to get to this stage already, but we are not too far off 2030. Will there be sufficient lead-in time for people to meet that target?

Ms Kerr: Chair, it is really funny that you say that, because James will know that that was my immediate thought as well: when I saw the data, it looked like there were no cars on the road. How come it is such a small dip, relatively speaking? We have talked about why that might have been, and a lot of it comes down to the fact that there was still freight and we were still getting deliveries. Actually, we probably got more deliveries, and that might be some kind of interplay into why that happened. At that time, we did not have this data. We were working somewhat blind. The fact that we now have it and can model this gives us confidence that, yes, in fact, we can do what we are committed to doing. As James said, it is a forecast, and the trick will be feeding in the live information as we get it and working out how we can flex to make sure that we do achieve. We now have the data to support that. That S-curve is essentially built on the various UK-wide bans on vehicles. We have talked about the petrol and diesel ban and the associated ZEV mandate.

The next chunk of emissions that we need to look at is around freight. The previously announced ban on petrol and diesel freight is set for 2040, I think. We are now very much focused, on a UK-wide basis and with colleagues in Ireland, on addressing freight. Is the answer a kind of ZEV mandate equivalent, or how do we do that? The interesting thing with freight is that tackling that issue will require all of us to work together, just because of the way that freight moves. It does not just travel in Northern Ireland. We have managed to benefit quite a lot from work that others are doing in that space, and joining in with that. Very recently, the transport Ministers were in Belfast for the British-Irish Council transport sectoral Ministers' meeting. Freight is one of the four areas that we are going to be working on as part of the forward work plan. That gives us confidence. It is a massive challenge, but we are starting to see the top of an S-curve. We have a multi-decade plan, and, over the next decade we will start to see that real drop. Until very recently — there is a bit of a lag in the data — transport was the only sector where emissions were going up in Northern Ireland. We are in no way not aware of the challenge, but we are more confident than we were.

Mr Redmond: The proportion of EVs on our roads today is still quite small. The benefit of EVs has not come through in the data just yet. As that proportion increases, and the numbers of diesel and unleaded petrol vehicles diminish, that is where we will start to see the benefits. Given where we were with the modelling, and particularly in relation to the guidance that was coming through, we needed to have a credible plan. We cannot just flick a switch and make this happen overnight. This is going to take decades, and we are not forcing anyone to buy an EV tomorrow. Those decisions are coming down the line, and that communication and that piece behind that, but the data reflects that we are not expecting everybody to do that overnight, but that we will get there over time. Vehicles can only be retained for a certain length of time and will do their duty for a certain length of time, and, at that point, somebody will have to trigger that. What we have been able to build into that data is not just the new vehicles that are coming in but how second-hand vehicles are used. In rural locations, in particular, people hold on to vehicles for longer. They are wedded to them, and rightly so, because they have different uses for them compared with people in urban areas.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I declare an interest there. [Laughter.]

Mr Redmond: The level of information and the detail that we have got into allow us to really interrogate that. It is agile, though, and we are learning as we go along. As time goes by, we will be able to monitor and feed back and say, "We said, but what actually happened?", and use that learning and understanding to reflect forward and then, potentially, look at other policy areas that we need to accelerate to bring the curve further down than we had initially forecast.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): To clarify, what consequences are there for the Department if it fails to meet the 2030 targets?

Ms Kerr: The 2030 targets are Northern Ireland-wide. All our policies are quantified and we feed that in to DAERA, which is able to work with all the other sectors around the 2030 targets. We are not necessarily sighted on anything other than our bit.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): There could be a balancing out —?

Ms Kerr: In the short term, definitely, we will not be contributing as much. We are starting from a different place; other sectors are much further ahead in some cases. By 2050, for Northern Ireland to be net zero, we need to be net zero, especially given the size of the sector. As James said, the trick will be to be fleet of foot and to be able to respond to where the data tells us versus where we thought we would be, learn from that and adapt our policies to suit.

Mr Strain: Chair, you mentioned the VETS. The Committee has been with us on the journey to bring that scheme through. Having got it through the Assembly process and into statute, we can see the benefits that it will have in producing vehicles for the second-hand market and not just introducing them as new vehicles. That journey will probably be replicated in respect of the other sectors, because we are going to have to take the data that James has been able to put together, look at it in a Northern Ireland context and work with our colleagues in DfT to see how we can make sure that the impact can be felt here, on the basis of the needs that we have. We have been very conscious of that when talking to our counterparts, both through the British-Irish Council and in contact with the Irish and UK Governments.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Freight is now the big next step. What is the Department doing to engage with that industry so that people are not under any illusion as to what could be coming down the track in 2040? It is going to be huge for businesses and how they change, particularly if they are looking at their fleet and the management of it. We have just heard from the Community Transport Association and how it does that. It said that the electric vehicles in its minibus fleet are version 1, whereas with cars it feels like they are at version 10. What engagement is happening with those sectors?

Ms Kerr: As we have highlighted, we have taken a deliberate approach, for resource and many other reasons, of focusing first on the things that will bring about the most impact. Therefore, we have focused on the private car deliberately, because that is the biggest chunk of emissions and we need to do that as quickly as possible. That has been a deliberate approach: we cannot do everything all at the same time.

We said earlier that the ban on high-emitting freight is due in 2040. We are looking at a decades-long approach. This is not about tomorrow. We engage regularly with the freight sector across the Department. We are only starting to look at what we think we need to do. We do not necessarily have answers or are able to say with any authority what is going to happen. We are working with colleagues in that space, but we do generally engage with the freight sector.

Mr Strain: Over the past 12 or 18 months, we have really seen the benefit of direct stakeholder engagement. That is key to us understanding the needs of the freight sector. Our freight sector is predominantly privately owned small companies, which are working and trying —. Through groups like the CBI, we continue to engage with them to try to understand what we need to feed back in that Northern Ireland context when we are talking to DfT or looking at freight movement through the British-Irish Council forward work programme to see how those impacts — or whether there are any lessons to be learnt, for example, from Wales, which has similar freight arrangements. We can see how those work together. The Department will continue to foster those relationships.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Do you think that there is still a wee bit of nervousness around the VETS? Westminster obviously had the consultation that was going on around Christmastime. Obviously, there will have been engagement, I presume, from the Department and DfT in that. You will maybe speak about that as part of your answer. Since then, has there been ongoing engagement with the stakeholders in the motor industry on how the VETS is rolling out across Northern Ireland?

Mr Strain: There were two elements to that consultation. There was the rollback of the 2035 petrol and diesel ban to 2030, which is a reserved matter. The UK Government were working with the industry, particularly in a period of economic instability with respect to the markets. That needed to be done. In conjunction with that, there were flexibilities that they wanted to build into the vehicle emissions trading scheme itself, which was the second part of that consultation. All of that has been done through that consultation process. We do not have any manufacturers in Northern Ireland. Generally speaking, the big players are in the UK, and we have issues over jobs, market stability, vehicle supply and everything. That was all part of the bigger economic conversation that was going on alongside what the outputs might be of vehicles that will help us decarbonise in the transport sector. That was the big move, but it has continued to work, and we will have our say on how those trading schemes operate in future, because of the nature of the setup whereby it has to be agreed across all four nations.

Ms Kerr: It was important to get a response to the consultation quickly in order to provide certainty to the market. When there is a consultation and the answer is not known afterwards, that can bring about uncertainty, but the fact that the response came out quite quickly provided clarity for the market.

Mr Strain: At the moment, it still has to be legislated for. The Government response said that they would move back to 2030. The legislation still has to go through. That will be done through statutory instruments and the flexibilities of the scheme. My colleagues will be back to talk to you about it.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I am sure that you are disappointed that you will not be, David. [Laughter.]

Mr Strain: We will continue to keep you informed as that progresses.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I suppose it is difficult, given the legislation, but when do you hope to see that information starting to feed through more on the graph?

Ms Kerr: There is a lag, which is quite frustrating. James can speak more to that. We were looking again at some of the figures this morning. In 2021, there were a couple of thousand EVs, and we are now up to nearly 30,000 in a very short period of time. I see no reason for that to continue. The natural consequence of that is that we will start to see a reduction, but James can speak more about the catch-up of the data.

Mr Redmond: Part of the frustration is that there is a two-year lag. We are measured against the greenhouse gas inventory, and the latest one is from 2022. We are projecting everything forward and then having to re-validate where we are. In terms of that lag and where our initial projections are, it will be around 2029-2030 when we begin to see an increase in the EVs amongst our stock, and then the emission savings will become greater. Following on from that, you will see that contribution, year-on-year. We are very transparent about that in terms of the climate action plan, which is the five-year plan from 2023 to 2027, but also the 2030 target. We are not saying that we are going to do x, without there being any credibility behind that. We are saying that some of this will be a slow burn. The greater benefit will come post 2030, when you will see a significant decrease in emissions and that contribution towards net zero post 2030.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): To what extent is the electric vehicle task force helping to complement some of that and feeding in and informing some of that information? Has it been ramped up as part of this? How often does it meet?

Ms Kerr: The EV infrastructure task force has been instrumental in terms of the Electricity Supply Board charge points. There has been significant expansion from where we were. Recent figures show that — James knows the exact figures, but even when you look at the pipeline coming through planning, and the sports grants and things, you see that there is significant expansion coming, in addition to the expansion that has already happened. The task force was set up to look at pump-priming actions. I think that we are now seeing much more of a business-as-usual approach, where we engage with it all the time. The actual task force itself, as a structure, probably needs to be looked at in terms of always engaging with stakeholders. That is a good thing to do, but we do not need a task force to do it.

Mr Strain: Chair, I can update you on what we have been doing as far as the task force is concerned. The task force was originally put in place as a delivery mechanism for the energy strategy outputs, which was a DFE strategy. One of the original actions was the move to charging for electricity at charge points, which really kicked off the charge point market. Now we have 20 charge point operators operating in Northern Ireland on a commercial basis and 670 charge points on the public charge point network, and we can see the opportunity for about another 500 to come in. Obviously, you will be aware of the on-street residential charge point programme that is going on through Strabane and Derry. It is leading the consortium there. We have a number of applications from charge point operators to put in charge points, and we have a further number of charge points coming in through the Shared Island sports ground initiative, which Sian talked about. There are about another 500 coming online in the next while.

Because the market was changing and evolving, we were talking to the people on the task force on a regular basis. They were feeding information to us. We wrote to them recently, and we are meeting them on Friday 6 June. Our intention is to move to a more direct stakeholder engagement approach, rather than having a task force that meets just to talk about the wider issues out there so that we can identify those. We have an oversight group, which includes the statutory bodies like NIE and the Utility Regulator. We are going to hold that group together and move to direct stakeholder engagement with other colleagues such as the Consumer Council and the Electric Vehicle Association Northern Ireland. We will meet with them, and charge point operators, to discuss where the market has got to and how we can deal with individual issues.

The number of charge point operators had increased so we had a situation where we had CPOs sitting on the task force and discussing policy, but other people in the commercial market were outside of that and not part of the conversation. In order to be able to bring them in, we felt that this was the best approach. The response to that from the task force members has been positive. We will be talking to them on Friday week.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): That is positive. I am not saying that it will make it more open, but it will be open in the sense that stakeholders who maybe have concerns —. Even looking at urban versus rural, which is an issue with regard to getting investors to invest in — I hate this term — the harder-to-reach areas is important. That is positive.

I am going to move to other members.

Mr K Buchanan: I want to go back to your graph on page 13, James. Explain that to me. I understand the white line, and I understand the slump during COVID. If all of the cars had stopped 100% during COVID, where would the white line have dropped to?

Mr Redmond: That is not my data, remember. That white line relates to the greenhouse gas inventory. That is what has been reported in relation to the emissions savings over time. That is not what we are forecasting; that is the historical data.

Mr K Buchanan: Is that a Northern Ireland graph?

Mr Redmond: That is a Northern Ireland graph, yes.

Mr K Buchanan: If you were guesstimating — maybe that is not the right word — and all of the cars had stopped, where would that white line have gone to?

Mr Redmond: Unless we have the data, that white line —. Journeys had predominantly stopped or been reduced during that time.

Mr K Buchanan: For the sake of argument, let us say that there were 10% of cars on the road, so it would go down a little bit more. I cannot understand that graph, because if you go to the previous page, you will see that it states that cars are responsible for 63% of CO2 emissions. Maybe I have picked this up wrong. If it is 63%, why would the white line not go down to give 40% left? Let us call the yellow line the Amazon vehicles, the lorries and buses. I am not contradicting the graph, and I know that it is not your graph, James, but it does not make sense to me. If 63% is due to cars, that white line should be further down.

Mr Redmond: It was a great surprise to us when we interrogated the data.

Mr K Buchanan: Is that graph nonsense?

Mr Redmond: That is how the greenhouse gases are measured.

Mr K Buchanan: But it does not add up. That graph contradicts the previous page. It is not your graph, so I am not attacking you.

Ms Kerr: The important thing is that we are now feeding our data into the likes of the Climate Change Committee, because it underpins some of the challenges that we faced with the data in the first instance, and —

Mr K Buchanan: It just does not make sense. That should be showing 60% and showing 40% left.

Ms Kerr: As we said earlier, we were quite surprised .
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Mr Redmond: That 60% is the movements of all traffic on the roads. We take that 18% off, and maybe that 18% during COVID will become 90%, because that is the predominant mode of travel on the network at that time with regard to those movements. However, I take your point about a gap, and I will follow up to give you more clarity on what that is

Mr K Buchanan: It would be good to get that. Graphs are good to get a picture. I have a query about another graph, on page 17.

Mr Redmond: That is my graph. [Laughter.]

Mr K Buchanan: Is it?

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Do not worry. We have nicknamed him our forensic accountant for today.

Mr Boylan: I did the graph on page 19. Flick over to that.

Mr K Buchanan: I would like to see your graph. According to page 17, all cars are electric by 2050, OK?

Mr Redmond: Yes.

Mr K Buchanan: We are now in 2050, and we are charging our cars. What percentage is required to charge all those cars — I am not talking about charging points, I am talking about electricity — and what percentage of that will be green energy?

Mr Redmond: That is for DFE. Our role is that this is our forecast of the demand that will be required, and we are feeding that one source of data to DFE. We are using that data, as are SONI and the NI electrics, to inform where they need to get to.

Mr K Buchanan: If you were guesstimating the number of kilowatt hours to charge all cars tonight or today, and we are now in 2050 —. It is purely about —. It is saying "net zero". In 2050, we are, theoretically, charging all our cars, and is the electricity coming from net-zero sources?

Ms Kerr: I should clarity this point with regard to the opening statement. Our role in the legislation is in relation to surface transport. When we talk about the transport sector, it is surface transport, so it is tailpipe emissions. The other sectors are spread across different Departments; energy is with DFE. When we walk about the transport sector being net zero, it is the surface transport emissions. Our role, as James said and as David will come to, is feeding in how we see surface transport being decarbonised and feeding that into other Departments so that they can work together on the impact of that. We work closely with DFE and DAERA on the cap.

Mr K Buchanan: You are telling me that, theoretically, you have chopped off the tailpipe by 2050. You are correct in saying that that is your role, but will those vehicles be net zero? I am not disagreeing with your point. You have chopped off the tailpipe, you have done your bit, but is that electric car net zero, and is 2050, based on that, going to be net zero?

Mr Strain: I come back to the point that I made to the Chair earlier about how we are going to move to direct stakeholder engagement. The oversight group that was there for the task force includes NIE and the Utility Regulator. We are talking to them regularly about what they are doing to be able to meet those requirements and how, through RP7, investment that they are making in the network and looking at the socialisation of connection costs, they are going to feed that opportunity and what they need to do to strengthen the grid. We held that oversight group together because we saw that there was an opportunity for the statutory organisations to talk about, "This is what we need. This is where we need to get to. Can you actually meet those requirements? What are you doing? How does that all fit together?" It is sort of an evolving picture. As they start to look at what the requirements of the grid are going to be, what electricity is going to be available and how they can distribute it, that picture should then come together.

Ms Kerr: One of the important things is that, with regard to the Act, Northern Ireland collectively has to be net zero. One of the things that we have probably not struggled with but that has been a learning curve for us all is that —. Departments have responsibilities. In our case, we are quite lucky in that transport clearly falls within DFI, but we are having to engage with other Departments about even the public-sector fleet and how that decarbonises.

The trick in us doing that will be how we work together across the sector to make sure that, when we do one thing, the consequences are understood in others. There are many examples of where sectors need to work together. In fairness to DAERA, there are regular sector-led meetings. James will meet his data colleague counterparts in other Departments to talk about that so that it is all quantified.

The point, again, is that we need to be agile and work together. There will need to be good, collaborative working across the Civil Service for it to work. We now have the data that we can feed in to provide reliable information.

Mr K Buchanan: My final question is a very soft one for you, David, on your parting day.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I would not take his word for it. [Laughter.]

Mr K Buchanan: It is regarding car charging. I think that we asked before about private streets and getting a cable across the pavement. I have been asked about it numerous times. I got a local response, but I want to get an update on where we are with that so that Mr and Mrs Public can run a cable across. I know that it is a very simple thing, but it is an issue.

Ms Kerr: So you would think.

Mr K Buchanan: You can tell the truth now because you are going anyway. [Laughter.]

Mr Strain: I was expecting you to ask about that today. We have been here before. We have tried to keep you up to date about what we have been doing in that space. I can give you an update on where we are.

As you know, we have been researching and developing procedures for the use of cable coverage and engineered solutions to allow EV charging cables to be placed across the footway where residents do not have access to a driveway or the curtilage. We were doing that because it is currently an offence to run a cable across a footway. We have been through all that before.

At the outset, it is worth me saying that the issue continues to evolve. While those solutions look simple, they are not without their risks from a public safety perspective, hence the time that we have taken to consider the matter.

Over the past six or eight months, we have come up and listened to other people who have come and talked to the Committee. We have been talking to our friends in the Inclusive Mobility and Transport Advisory Committee (IMTAC), and you will be very familiar with some of the issues that its members have. We have found that, even in the IMTAC membership, some people have said, "That would be great for me", and other members have said, "That would not suit me". We had to look at the impact on footways and the engineered solutions. We have continued to try to deal with the insurance side of things and all the rest of it.

Unfortunately, I am not in a position to be able to tell you about the decision. Our work is nearly complete on it, but we are not quite there. Even at the end of last week, we had a stakeholder engagement event. We were able to talk to manufacturers of those products and to EVANI and share with them the ideas that we have about how we might be able to put it in place. The work is done, but we are not quite at the point where we can bring it to the Committee. However, we will come back to you in the near future and let you know how we are getting on.

Ms Kerr: We will. [Laughter.]

It is really important to highlight that point. In solving one problem, we need to make sure that we do not create an unintended consequence for other people. The legislation is there for public safety reasons, and we need to make sure that what we are doing takes account of that and is an appropriate solution.

I take your point that it seems simple, and the actual physical solution might be, but we need to make sure that the Department as a whole is content about the safety implications.

Mr Strain: That was a safe question, Keith.

Mr K Buchanan: You knew the answer, because I saw you reading it. [Laughter.]

Mr Strain: We are also very mindful of the just transition issue.

Mr K Buchanan: That is fine. From a timeline point of view, roughly when do you see that decision being made?

Ms Kerr: We are very aware of the need to be able to provide some clarity on it. We cannot be rushed with respect to the wider implications, and, when we have an answer, we will update you.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): That is fair enough. A couple of people have crept on to my list, so, if you do not mind, for time sake, we will go through them, starting with Peter.

Mr McReynolds: David mentioned a couple of upcoming positives with the charging operators. Has the electric vehicle task force been successful to date? What will the shift to direct stakeholder engagement look like?

Mr Strain: It has been successful. The difficulty with managing the evolving situation was that we needed to keep the group together. We wanted to know about the ideas and issues, and how that could be built into the Northern Ireland context, but it needed to change. We needed an opportunity for the statutory organisations to deliver the infrastructure yet also listen to the CPOs, the councils and the CBI. The task force has delivered. The original action of bringing in chargers for electricity kick-started the market here. There have been incredible developments, particularly with rapid charging, and there are big hubs, such as the Fastned at The Boulevard in Banbridge. We want to keep the task force together and make sure it has direct engagement with the Department, rather than being confined to a space where there are people with different ideas about what —. We want to hear what is actually needed, and that is why we have decided to move in that direction.

Mr McReynolds: How regularly will the direct stakeholder engagement happen?

Mr Strain: We will invite the oversight group, which includes the Utility Regulator and NIE, to meet quarterly. Sian used the term "Business as usual". If we need to talk to Vanaire or the CBI fortnightly, we will talk to them. For example, the Consumer Council presented some helpful information to the Committee and the Department, and we will meet with it regularly and agree on the time frames. The idea is that we move to a direct discussion.

Ms Kerr: As a Department and team, we want to be clear that the door is open. The task force is a useful structure, but the reason for its success has been the relationship building, getting to know one another and understanding what is going on. The team has worked well with all the charge point operators and has built those relationships. We will do more of that, but we want to make sure that where we have not engaged, our addresses are out there, and people are free to contact the team. We want to be more forward-thinking about our general communications to make sure our message gets out there. We met the CBI infrastructure committee, and we engaged with the Chartered Institute of Highways and Transportation (CIHT) and

next week to get the message out. The more the message gets out there, the more people will want to engage.

Mr Strain: If we come back to the Chair's original question: has it has been successful? Absolutely. It has created relationships. If James needs more data, we have worked with retailers and can get the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) data. We can ask our colleagues in the other areas to talk at our events. I was in Newry a couple of weeks ago with the freight sector talk about logistics and build relationships. That has been the key. The way the direct stakeholder engagement has been set up will enhance the arrangements in the task force and bring it up to date with where we are in the market. I hope that helps.

Mr McReynolds: Lastly, today's evidence has been very focused on freight and vehicles, but towards the end of your presentation, active travel and bus travel got a mention around policy development that is currently being explored. Are there any initial soundings on that? From my perspective, as someone who is quite interested in both, there is a lot of policy already there. Is that just starting, or is there a solid foundation where we could see something rapidly happening around, for example, what we have just heard about electric vehicles? With regard to active travel and bus travel, given the budgetary constraints, do you think we are going to get somewhere quickly?

Ms Kerr: I think that our active travel colleagues are coming to brief you in the coming weeks, so I do not want to steal any of the glory. You will be aware that a team has been staffed to deliver against the active travel delivery plan, and, certainly, a lot of focus has been put on it in the Department. There is a commitment in the Act on active travel; it is a core component. With regard to emission savings, it relates, generally, to short journeys, so it does not make a huge impact on that. Does it make a difference to congestion? Yes. Translink is the fourth largest fleet of zero-emission vehicles in the UK and Ireland. It has a programme to decarbonise its fleet, subject to budget availability. There are Metro fleets that are fully decarbonised. Great leadership is being shown by Translink. Everybody is playing their part. James might want to speak a bit on this, but the benefit is that if every vehicle were changed to zero-emission, emissions would be zero for transport. Where the public transport element fits in is in helping more around those 2030 and 2040 targets. There are still petrol and diesel cars about, so people reducing their journeys in those and using public transport helps. James, do you want to say any more about the data? There are an awful lot of numbers on the screen.

Mr Redmond: No, they were more for coming back to Keith's question from earlier. When you look at individual schemes, for example, an active travel scheme, the quantification of the emission savings associated with that is difficult to understand. Through the transport plans, particularly when looking at all modes and across a planned area, we will get a real grasp and understanding as we transform our urban towns and cities. We will point towards the movement of people rather than the movement of cars in urban areas and what the savings will be. That is the policy development hook. We are not quite there yet as to how it will look and fit together. They were all run in parallel, so once we present that and see what it looks like in a plan, then we will be able to quantify what that will do to influence people's travel, and point towards reduced trips and the mode shift around the three policy strategies that we talked about. We are certainly not forgetting about it, but at this time, we are just unable to quantify the overall emission benefit that will be associated with it. That is why the focus has been on the most impactful strategy, which is the EV transition, but it will also have an added benefit to the modal shift.

Mr Dunne: Thank you, folks, for your presentation. I am keen to know what work has been done or what data is available on the cost of EV vehicles. Obviously, for some, the costs are still prohibitive, particularly the up-front cost of vehicles. I am keen to learn a bit more about that, if you have any stats. Obviously, as technology has advanced, prices have reduced and used EV vehicles are now more widespread than they were a few years ago. Hopefully, that is within your remit, because, ultimately, if we want to get people on this journey, pardon the pun, it will need to be affordable for everybody.

Ms Kerr: It is a really good question. It is clearly one of the considerations when people go to look at a car because, in many cases, they are more expensive, but the vehicle emissions trading scheme is one of the ways that prices will drop. Recently, the advice from the Climate Change Committee on the fourth carbon budget talks about the fact that they expect to see price parity in the coming years, and that will greatly help. I have never bought a new car, and the second-hand market is where we will start to see benefits. David might want to say a bit about the second-hand market and Motability. It is one of the things that we see as being quite useful. Do you want to pick up on the Motability point, David?

Mr Strain: Motability continues to be hugely important for not only the provision of electric vehicles to the market but the Northern Ireland car market itself. The fact that people are able to use that high-end benefit and choose to use it to buy a vehicle is helpful. Motability sales accounted for about 47% of the car market in 2024, and that included nearly 8,000 EVs. The actual figure is, I think, 7,823 vehicles that are battery electric vehicles. Of the Motability fleet, 27% are now EVs. That is more than 14,000 vehicles. Motability intends its fleet to be all electric by 2032. That type of intervention, whether it is about going through the benefits system or people choosing to use their benefits, can help the car market.

Again, there is a commercial element in respect of when that price parity will be reached in relation to the number of vehicles sold and the number of vehicles that are able to be produced. Flexibilities could be built into the trading schemes. All of that will help to bring us to the point where we get parity. That is when someone like Sian, who does not buy a new car, will be able to buy something in the second-hand market — that market is quite strong — or be able to get new vehicles.

Mr Dunne: Many people lease their cars too, and there are various finance arrangements as well.

My final point goes back to what Keith talked about: the charging points at homes. We have talked about that a number of times over recent months. Do you envisage it being the case that every home that has an EV car should or must have its own charging facility? Obviously, nobody has a petrol tank at their front door.

Mr Strain: We do not —.

Mr Dunne: Do you forecast that the use of charging points will in public spaces?

Mr Strain: The key is getting the right mix. People may need to have some sort of across-pavement solution, so that they do not have the barrier of having to pay for charging at a commercial charge point, where they would have to pay VAT and all the rest of it and would not be able to avail themselves of preferential rates. Such a solution would be helpful. There will be other community hubs at places such as leisure centres and sports clubs. There will be opportunities through the strategic road network chargers. Over 1,000 workplace chargers have been put in, meaning that people will be able to charge EVs at work as well. It is about providing for that mix of how you get your charge, when you need it and how often you need to charge. The range of vehicles is increasing to 350 miles, and battery capacity is increasing. All the technology elements will all come into the mix in respect of who needs what, where and when. That is the key. There is no one fix for any of that. It will have fit the whole market.

Mr Dunne: Thanks, folks.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): On some days, I wish I had a diesel tank outside my home, but that is another story.

Mr Boylan: I am not going to say anything about that, Chair, to be honest with you. [Laughter.]

Thanks very much for the presentation. I have two questions. The one for David is slightly difficult. We have 25 years or so to go until 2050, but where is the general populace with EVs? I know that it is difficult, and you have been dealing with EVs, stakeholders and everything else, but, clearly, it is about changing the public's attitude to those things and a modal shift. Have you any indication of that at this moment? I know that it is a difficult one, but have you any indication? We are going to bring in legislation, and it will either be a carrot-and-stick approach or something to generally incentivise people and get that real change. Have we any early indications of where we are, or is anything coming from the industry or stakeholders?

Mr Strain: The first thing that I will say is something that Sian mentioned in her opening comments.

Mr Boylan: I might have missed that.

Mr Strain: It might have been later on, but it was about our general communications and how we communicate the message and what messages and what misinformation is out there. I am not going to start talking about all the individual things. We read in the papers about what people think of electric cars, the batteries and where they get them from and all the things that go along with what makes people think, "That is not for me".

One of the things that we have been working on with DFT and our stakeholder partners is how we can change that messaging, what we can do as a Department to assist that and how we can get that information across.

Is the general populace sold on electric vehicles yet? We will just have to wait and see how we can see that market. Certainly, it is encouraging. The commercial operators are investing, the public charge people are buying cars, Motability is putting them into the system. People enjoy driving electric cars and they like them. We now just need to keep that momentum going and make sure that the Department plays its part in helping that happen.

Mr Boylan: I will take that answer for now. We have a long run-in, but we have an opportunity, to be fair.

Ms Kerr: I think, Cathal, the key point is the one I mentioned before, that this is a decades-long journey.

Mr Boylan: No, you are right, 100%.

Ms Kerr: People will get more used to seeing electric cars, and as your mate gets one —. A lot of these things are due to nervousness about change, and it is entirely understandable. In some cases now, it would not work for people. However, when a person comes to sell their car, maybe not this time but maybe the next time, that these become more —

Mr Boylan: One hundred per cent, Sian. However, I am thinking more of encouraging people. That is grand. Even the derogation out of Europe was not as long a run-in. All I am saying to you is that you will have to change people's mindsets and attitudes. James, did you want to come in?

Mr Redmond: It was just on a point about attitudes towards decarbonisation, which we saw presented last week, or two weeks ago, on the transport strategy. Part of that transport strategy, the comms within the transport strategy itself, a research paper had been written by the Consumer Council on attitudes to decarbonisation, showing the percentages of people who would move to a certain mode. Through the transport strategy communications, we will drill down and pull out some of those percentages out and challenge or encourage the comms to understand why only 68% would switch to EVs. We can draw out some of that intel and information out of these upcoming consultations to try and gauge where we are. Maybe we are missing something on what we need to do to further incentivise or educate. That will be an important exercise that will be upcoming in the next month or so.

Mr Boylan: James, specifically between me and you, because I enjoyed the conversation that you had with Keith

and it says net —.

Mr Redmond: Is the focus on my graph?

Mr Boylan: I will come to the graph in a minute, just see. It says net zero should occur in 2050. Just in case I am not around personally, I want you to send all those charts through a stargate. [Laughter.]

Use a Tardis or something, just give me all that information. I would be quite interested because Keith raised a very valid point: it is about getting proper data. I know that he was challenging an individual chart. Thank God, we all did O-level maths and are not doing too bad, but I understand his point in that.

Mr Redmond: I know what you are saying, 100%.

Mr Boylan: We have often had conversations about the proper data. Obviously, this is cross-departmental and there are other stakeholders, Departments and universities involved. You need to get that.

Mr Redmond: What we find when speaking with other nations, knowing where we are and what we are doing, we have been able to take advantage of our size in relation to our data, and we have been able to take a wealth of data. That is where we are, in that position. Others, down South, are looking at how they can use that. Also, Wales and Scotland are looking at how they can follow suit. We are leading the way, but we are not yet finished. We want to remain best in class, but we will rely on that data and that sort of machine learning. We must understand that we need to gather and keep gathering data and invest in an understanding of what those insights and outcomes are, what is effective and what is not. Then we must share that and provide it, using that data to bring people along with us.

Mr Strain: Cathal, just on that point about data, we spoke previously about direct stakeholder engagement. Therefore, we are getting data from other sources such as the retailers. The Consumer Council was talking to the Committee about the recent survey that it carried out. EVANI provided us with very helpful information. All that starts to feed back in again. We can use that data to frame some of our communications.

Mr Boylan: Absolutely. Get the general populace on board. I agree 100%. That is important. Thank you very much.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Yes. Officials will be here to speak to the Committee about active travel on 11 June. We will be discussing some of those aspects with them.

Thank you very much for your time. David, we genuinely wish you well. Thank you for everything that you have done for the Infrastructure Department and this Committee. I know that you will be absolutely devastated — [Laughter.]

I know that you will tune in and listen to us. [Laughter.]

Mr Strain: Thank you very much.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Thank you very much for your time: we really appreciate it. All the best.