Official Report: Minutes of Evidence

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I welcome back to the Committee Dr Chris Hughes, director of the driving, vehicle and road safety policy division in the Department for Infrastructure (DFI), and Dorcas Cutrona from the Department's governance and vehicle policy projects branch. It is lovely to see you. We are looking forward to hearing from you on biennial MOT testing. We are on the starting blocks on this topic, so we will probably see you again. I invite you to brief the Committee for five minutes, after which we will go to members' questions.

Dr Chris Hughes (Department for Infrastructure): Thank you: it is good to see everybody again. We will keep this brief. I am conscious that this is your last day before recess, and we do not want to delay you. Thank you, Chair and Committee members, for the opportunity to brief you on this matter. The Minister has said that she is very keen to hear the views of elected representatives. We will give you the information that you seek from us, if we can. We are also very keen to hear what you have to say. As you mentioned, Chair, this is one part of the process that we are going through, so we are far from the end. We have gathered evidence from a consultation. We are also now seeing those cars that had temporary exemption certificates (TACs) issued coming back into the MOT system, so, through this summer and beyond, we will have live data about cars that have not been required to have an annual test. We will be able to bring that information to members. It is all part of a journey.

There were 1,400 responses to the consultation. The synopsis of it is that views are strongly split and are contradictory. The "blue lights", the automotive industry, professionals and businesses are concerned that moving to biennial testing will have a detrimental impact on road safety. Two thirds of the public believe that biennial testing will either have no impact or will improve road safety. I will pass over to Dorcas, who will run you through the other contradictory bit of the consultation, which is about the financial implications of moving to biennial testing.

Mrs Dorcas Cutrona (Department for Infrastructure): About 80% of the responses were in favour of biennial testing. The reasons that respondents cited for being in favour included their thinking, initially, that they would get an MOT test quicker. They also thought that they would save money on servicing and car maintenance costs. About 91% of consultation respondents said that they serviced their car annually, and 44% of respondents thought that they would save money. That would, perhaps, lead you to think that they would not service their car as often. The automotive industry — mechanics and the like — said that biennial testing might mean that they would have to increase their servicing prices. They used the COVID period as an example: a lot of car owners saved on parts and serviced their cars less often. There were various reasons for that. COVID did not just affect testing: there were behavioural changes, and car parts were not always available. It was not straightforward.

Those who were in favour of biennial testing and those who were not said that they were not prepared to pay higher insurance premiums. We contacted three insurance bodies that speak for various companies across the UK, all of which said that there was a very strong likelihood that insurance premiums would increase. The insurance companies base their premiums on risk. They think that, although there are always some unroadworthy cars on the roads, with an annual MOT, those cars are potentially found sooner, whereas with a biennial test, that would take 24 months.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): OK. Super. Thank you very much. Obviously, there are a lot of vested interests here: we all drive on the road, and so do the public. That is where the issue kicks off. I find it interesting that the majority of responses came from individuals. Do you think that that skews the results from a departmental point of view? How do you square that circle? I note that you say that there are umbrella groups with a significance that goes beyond that of some of the other respondents. Do you give particular weight to the responses of some of those groups, as opposed to those of members of the public who fed into the consultation process?

Dr Hughes: My approach is that of a former statistician. Some 1,394 people responded online. From the likes of the PSNI, we got a single written response. Obviously, there are 6,500 PSNI officers, and that response does not reflect the views of individual officers. We have responses from almost 1,400 individual members of the public. However, trade representatives were among the respondents. In my introduction, I broke that down by saying where the blue-lights organisations, the automotive industry and the industry representatives were in the consultation. We recognise that.

There is no way of doing a weighted analysis: you are not going to get a number, so you must make a judgement. Those who know about the industry have concerns about road safety. The general public think, "That sounds like a good idea, and it will save me money", and, "Even though the cost of insurance will go up, I am not prepared to pay more for it". That is why I say that there are contradictory responses to the consultation.

We will manage that by being explicit about the different interest groups and those who are knowledgeable about the matter, rather than doing a numbers game on it. Essentially, the people who responded on Citizen Space represent the general public. Among them are the mechanics and so on. We can separate them out, but that is the approach that we will take.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): OK. You mentioned the temporary exemption certificates (TECs) and how live data will be part of the evidence on biennial testing. TECs mean, essentially, that there is biennial testing right now. TECs are not a new thing in Northern Ireland; they may be relatively new, but this is not the first time that we have had temporary exemptions. They were used during COVID, for example. Will you also use that data to help inform the decision, or will you use only the data on the current stream of TECs?

Mrs Cutrona: We will use both streams. The general pass rate for cars sits at about 80%. In the year before COVID, the rate was very high, at about 82%. In the COVID time, it dropped to about 77%. We will compare and contrast that with the information that we get. The cars that have TECs are just starting to be MOT'd, and it will take a few months for the information on them to be processed.

During COVID, cars failed the test because of broken lights, poor tread on tyres, brakes and stuff to do with suspension. That information on reasons for failure is from the Driver and Vehicle Agency (DVA), and it is supported by the views of mechanics in some of their responses.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): That is interesting. From my perspective, if I have an MOT test coming up, I make sure that my car is ready for it. Does there need to be a public awareness campaign on what an MOT is and what it means? It is clear that people have taken a lax attitude to it.

Mrs Cutrona: About 91% of the people who responded to the consultation said that, whether in advance of the MOT or not, they service their car every year. That was contradicted by the 44% of people who thought, perhaps, that they would save money by not servicing their car every year, but, based on the consultation, 91% of people currently do so.

Dr Hughes: A public awareness campaign is always well worth considering. We asked people specifically about their understanding of the MOT test, and 99% of people said that they understand that passing the MOT means that the car is fit to be driven on the road at that time. Furthermore, 99% of people said that they understand that that does not mean that the car will remain roadworthy until the next test, so there appears to be a strong understanding of that. If we change the system, we will obviously need to look at what we do to inform people, but, right now, understanding of what the MOT test does and how it fits into an annual cycle seems to be strong.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): OK. Are there any figures to prove that there has been an increase in, for example, road traffic collisions (RTCs) in places where there is biennial testing? Are there any figures from Northern Ireland yet? I know that we will look at the data from TECs being in place at the moment, but has there been anything to indicate an increase in incidents as a direct result of biennial testing?

Mrs Cutrona: We do not have any data specifically on Northern Ireland. I have gathered information from the World Health Organization, including a chart showing European countries, their fatality rates per 100,000 inhabitants and their roadworthiness testing systems. The UK, including Northern Ireland, has the lowest fatality rate, at 2·4%. Southern Ireland has the next lowest, at 2·8%. Of other countries that have biennial testing, France has a rate of 4·7%, Italy's rate is 5% and Portugal's is 7·2%. They all have biennial testing. The figures may suggest a potential link between biennial roadworthiness testing and fatalities, but we do not have specific figures for Northern Ireland.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): OK. With biennial testing, the monitoring of car roadworthiness will obviously have resource implications for policing. Have there been any discussions with the Department of Justice or with the police in light of their response to the consultation?

Dr Hughes: Dorcas has engaged extensively with the police.

Mrs Cutrona: Yes. We met the police before starting the consultation to get some information from them. They also provided a consultation response. They are not in favour of biennial testing, and they have strong concerns about road safety. They also mentioned the fact that their resources are at an all-time low, which has meant that, in recent times, they have been able to do fewer roadside checks to spot issues such as broken lights and bald tyres. The information that they gave us at the time indicated that they do not think that, if biennial testing is introduced, they will be in a position to up the number of roadside checks.

Dr Hughes: To answer your question on the Department of Justice, no, we have not had discussions with it. We engage with the Department on things such as changing sentencing guidelines, but that is not where we are at on this. The operationalisation of biennial testing will be through the PSNI, and we have sought its views.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): OK. Thanks.

Mr Stewart: Thanks for coming along, folks. It is a really interesting survey, with some conflicting information. It is great to hear that the Minister is looking for Members' feedback. Mine is, first and foremost, that road safety is paramount. To that end, I await the responses from the PSNI and the experts in the field. It is interesting that 90% of the people who responded as individuals said that they service their car annually and look after it, but that means that a significant minority do not. About 20% to 25% of cars fail the MOT test, which tells me that those drivers do not bother to get their car ready for it. They are driving a car that is not fit for the road, and I assume that, with that mentality, they will continue to do so for another year until they use the MOT appointment as a reason to get a quick £30 check to see what is needed.

Mrs Cutrona: About 14% of the people who responded to the consultation do as you said. They were honest about it.

Mr Stewart: Unfortunately, we need to make the rules based on the worst offenders — the people who are going to cause the most trouble. The police have said that. Clearly, even those who are meant to make their cars roadworthy do not do so. It is also interesting that 72% of the people who favour the test moving to every two years would not be content to pay more in insurance. We can all agree that, if insurance companies see any opportunity to stick the premiums up, they will invariably do so; that is borne out. You talked about police resources. There is no way that they would have extra resources to do the spot checks that would be required, according to the feedback; that is what they have said. Chair, I do not have any additional questions at this stage —

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): That is OK.

Mr Stewart: — but I look forward to the data coming through on the two-year tests. When will that be published?

Mrs Cutrona: It will take time. The DVA publishes stats every quarter, usually a quarter in arrears. We will ask for an indication from the DVA when we present information to the Minister, but I do not think that that will be in the public domain until the end of this year.

Dr Hughes: Those cars are only now starting to come into the system. The TECs were introduced in May or June, so we are only starting to have those vehicles in. We will need time to gather the information. The DVA will analyse that, so there will be a specific analysis on those cars. The longer we wait, the more months of data that we will have, but, within a couple of months, we will, hopefully, be able to see whether there is a marked shift or whether things are similar. I do not know, because I do not know what the data is going to tell me. If there is a big difference, we will need less time, but it could be more subtle. In the course of the data collection, there will come a point at which we will say, "Right. What we have is what we've got", and that will be fed into the process and become part of the mix.

Mr Stewart: I have another question. Does anywhere do testing by mileage, or is that too burdensome for the system?

Mrs Cutrona: We checked that out before we went to consultation and did not come across it anywhere. We think that that is because vehicle owners do not have to officially record their mileage anywhere. Mileage is recorded at your MOT, but it is optional for insurance purposes. The DVA does not record the mileage of your car, so there is nowhere official to monitor it. The DVA has that information, but it is not presented anywhere.

Dr Hughes: I need to double-check, but my understanding is that it does not have the right to do that. I am getting my car MOT'd in two days' time. It is being serviced now, so this is all very live. [Laughter.]

Mr Stewart: Good luck.

Dr Hughes: When you go to the test, they say, "Would you mind reading that out?". They ask whether you are content to give it to them, but I do not think that they have the right to capture it. I will come back to you on that, but that is my understanding.

Mr Stewart: The mileage is recorded on your MOT certificate. It is also on your service log; it is recorded at each service. I do not know whether that is a legal requirement.

Mrs Cutrona: We did some checking with GB about such things. It was all anecdotal evidence around fraud: mileage, speedometers — what do you call it?

Dr Hughes: Clocking.

Mrs Cutrona: Yes. [Inaudible.] [Inaudible.]

Mrs Cutrona: Those were some of the issues when we looked at mileage.

Dr Hughes: The short answer is that nobody has managed to make that work. If you want to keep your seven-year guarantee or whatever up to date, you need to service your car every so-many miles, I think, and the mileage is recorded on the service log, but it does not read through into the MOT system, as far as we are aware.

Mr Stewart: Insurance companies ask for a rough assessment of your mileage. They will probably not pay out if you go over that, knowing them; that is my take on it.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): It is interesting.

Mr Boylan: I love this subject, too. I have to ask this question: you may or may not have asked it. You say that people get their cars serviced, which is correct. Are we accepting that a car service is more comprehensive than an MOT test?

Dr Hughes: I would say not.

Mr Boylan: My only reason for asking is that anybody who gets their car serviced will know what that involves, compared with an MOT. A car service involves checking brakes, brake fluid and oil — all of those things — and the engine. The car is not put up on a ramp and shaken. It is all very well for people to say — you have a lot of data about servicing a car, which is correct. It is all about road safety. It is in that context that I am asking the question. It is not an argument for or against; it is about people understanding exactly what an MOT is about and what road safety is about.

Dr Hughes: The short answer is no. When you get your car serviced, it does not guarantee that it will pass an MOT. In fact, every time I leave my mechanic, he says, "Now, that does not mean that it will pass the MOT". He actually says that, but you are absolutely right.

Mr Boylan: Fair enough, I am just saying that the physicality of an MOT test is slightly different.

Dr Hughes: The computer tests for things. There are emissions tests and a range of other things.

Mr Boylan: Your car is MOT'd for the day that it passes.

Dr Hughes: It is, yes.

Mr Boylan: Let us be honest: it is not guaranteed for the next day.

My question is about some of that stuff. Interestingly, the PSNI and road safety groups are very concerned; clearly, that is where the biggest percentages are. Where is that quantified in their stats — road traffic collisions? Is there detailed data to quantify that?

Dr Hughes: Putting my wider road-safety hat on, I will say that members will be aware that the greatest cause of road traffic collisions is human error. That is exacerbated by a vehicle not being maintained in a roadworthy condition. If the PSNI records the cause of the collision, it will say, for example, "Pulling out from a road without due care and attention", or, "Incorrect position on the road". There may be a problem with the car, but that is not recorded as the major cause. When you look at the reasons that are recorded, you will see mechanical failure in less than 1% of cases. Off the top of my head, I think that the figure is about 0·3%. One of the major concerns of the road safety organisations is that the more people's attitudes are seen as what underpins collisions, the less emphasis there is on road safety, and, given that people view the MOT as part of the road safety suite of measures, that de-emphasises the need to take care of road safety issues. That is one of their concerns.

Mr Boylan: That is what my second question is about. It is the responsibility of the car owner to ensure that the car is roadworthy, and that is probably one of the major things. It is interesting that you talked about insurance premiums. How does that work anywhere else that does biennial tests?

Mrs Cutrona: The honest answer is that I am not sure. We tried to get information from some other European countries, but we have not been able to source that. In our discussions with three of the big industry bodies, they said that setting insurance premiums is based on risk, and they believe that lengthening the period between safety checks from 12 months to 24 months increases risk.

Dr Hughes: One of my roles is to meet industry representative bodies. They are careful about commercial-in-confidence information: for their own reasons, they will not share that. They are commercial businesses and are regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), so they are not under our control in that respect, but they know exactly what the annual fatality rate is in Northern Ireland, and they can tell you that. They know exactly how many collisions there were and how many people were seriously injured. They are across every bit of that data, and they are concerned about anything that de-emphasises road safety in general, because that leads to more collisions. They have not expressed it that way, but my take on it is this: that is their view, and they know our data inside and out. They are very much looking at the market here, and there is a concern about that market.

Mrs Cutrona: The choice of insurance providers and insurance broker companies is less in Northern Ireland than it is in GB. The insurance bodies said that some insurance companies could potentially pull out of Northern Ireland, which would reduce that further.

Mr Boylan: We know that, in the South, there are biennial tests — you mentioned that — but is there still no data on that?

Mrs Cutrona: We checked one of the comparison sites for down South, and their insurance premiums were quite similar to ours, but it is hard to stand over that information.

Mr Boylan: That is fair enough. It is a broader conversation, but it has raised a number of things. Obviously, you have the industry, the blue-light brigade and the road safety groups, and they have their own views, which is fair enough. That is where the debate lies.
My other point is on the temporary exemption certificates. Is there any evidence to suggest that issuing those has had implications for road safety? Is it too early to say whether there is a correlation?

Dr Hughes: We are running at about 70 fatalities a year in the North. The data has not been collected for long enough to say that, and it is also about the way in which data is recorded. There is always a time lag with the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) statistics. We have no evidence of any change, but I would not expect that data to be available in the time that we have had.

Mr Boylan: Absolutely. I threw that in because we will be looking at live data. It will form part of the discussions.

Dr Hughes: Yes, the information will become available.

Mrs Cutrona: I am thinking back to when TECs were in place. When PSNI officers record reasons, they do not check whether a car has a TEC.

Mr Boylan: That is fair enough. The issue has been brought up, and it is a good to have the discussion.

Dr Hughes: It is.

Mr Boylan: There is a lot of good information. It is important that we have all the data so that, when we come to it, we can make an informed decision. That is reasonable enough. Chair, I could talk about it all day, but I will leave it at that.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Super. Thank you.

Before I move on, I forgot to seek agreement that Hansard can record the evidence. We are halfway through, but are we agreed on that?

Mr Boylan: No, Chair. [Laughter.]

Mr Boylan: Chair, given that some of that stuff is about road safety, I should declare that I am on the Policing Board.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): OK: a hundred per cent.

Mr Dunne: Thanks, folks, for your presentation. It was very interesting. I am keen to go back to the genesis of why you started down the road of biennial testing. Was it the case that our MOT centres were struggling to cope with demand because of capacity issues? Is that part of why we are where we are?

Dr Hughes: I suppose so. Yes, that is part of the mix. That was the context. Some members around the table — literally and virtually — were part of that discussion. I see Mark smiling. Elected representatives brought that to the attention of the Minister, who then took a decision to explore it as an option. That is probably a fair way to describe it.

Mr Dunne: That is OK. The TECs have been a helpful tool. They have made the experience of booking an appointment easier for all of us and our constituents. We had all been contacted about that. Is the Department content with the waiting times for appointments as they are at the minute?

Dr Hughes: Waiting times for appointments have reduced. Do you have the figures, Dorcas?

Mrs Cutrona: I do not have them here. However, from memory, they were sitting at around 100 days, but, in recent months, that figure has dropped and people can now get appointments within 30 days max.

Mr Dunne: Yes, there has certainly been an improvement.

Mrs Cutrona: The two new test centres will open as well, and that will improve capacity by around 200,000.

Mr Dunne: Remind me: are the TECs coming to an end, or will they continue until a decision has been taken on this?

Dr Hughes: Sorry, we do not have information on that; we would need to go back and wash that through.

Mr Dunne: OK. I will go back to the consultation. Between the most recent feedback and that from the 2021 call for evidence, has there been any change? Obviously, that was a difficult time, with COVID and so on. Has there been any noticeable difference?

Mrs Cutrona: We had a bigger response this time, but the trends were similar. The only difference was that, this time, only one motoring organisation responded. We reached out and asked those organisations to respond, but they did not seem to take such a great interest this time.

Dr Hughes: The biggest difference was probably that, when we did the call for evidence, the insurance industry stayed its hand a wee bit. It said, "This is a call for evidence" and was very engaged in keeping an eye on that. This time, the industry has been much firmer about the fact that it expects to increase insurance costs as a result of the change. That is the main difference that I have spotted between the two processes: a firming-up of the insurance industry's position on that.

Mrs Cutrona: Yes. We got more from the automotive industry and trade organisations this time. We had a big response from them, and they put a lot of detailed information on their view on things into the responses.

Mr Dunne: You mentioned insurance, which is a major concern for so many people out there. Has there been any consultation with, for example, the motor insurance task force? Has it been involved?

Mrs Cutrona: Our Department has been in contact with it, but not as part of the consultation.

Dr Hughes: The motor insurance task force is being headed up by the Minister of Finance. Our Minister is an interested party. I do not know where that sits at the moment. The industry makes commercial decisions, and it sits under the FCA. I am not able to add much detail, I am afraid.

Mr Dunne: Finally, what is the time frame for the way forward?

Dr Hughes: I can tell you what steps we have to take. We will take away the Committee's feedback and include that as part of the process. As I said to Mr Stewart, we will look at the data on the TECs. We will need to finish analysing the consultation responses and get the additional information on the TECs. After that, we will provide advice to the Minister. We are that stage in the process. To an extent, we need to see what the TECs tell us, but that is the stage that we are at. The analysis of the consultation is ongoing. We are able to give you a reasonable indication of what respondents said. The Minister will then get advice, and it is for her to take a decision.

Mr Dunne: Sure. Thank you.

Mr McReynolds: I will touch on the concerns that were mentioned by the blue-light services. Were those based on evidence? Was data mentioned in their responses, or were the concerns that they presented mostly anecdotal?

Mrs Cutrona: There was a limited amount of data. They gave us some figures but not a significant amount. They gave us some information, but the most recent stuff was from a year or so ago.

Mr McReynolds: Chris, this touches on an answer that you gave to Cathal. Maybe I misheard you. Did you suggest that there is a link between the lack of vehicle maintenance and maybe the lack of MOTs and the number of RTCs? Is that what the data shows?

Dr Hughes: What we know is that human error is the cause of collisions. Driving without due care and attention is one of the major causes of collisions and, in particular, fatalities. It is about people's attitude to road safety. As part of that general principle, I am speculating that, if you do not make sure that your car is roadworthy, that may read across to the actions that you take. There is no hard evidence. It is not that kind of link. However, we are tussling with human behaviour, and that is one of the big issues that we deal with.

International evidence is quite clear that — I am talking more broadly here about road safety and road safety messaging — there are far lower rates of collisions in countries where there is an expectation that, if you infringe any road safety laws, you will be caught. If you reside in Sweden, for example, and you are not in a target group, you can expect to be breathalysed at least once a year. If you are in a target group, you will be breathalysed much more frequently. As a result, people expect to be caught if they drink and drive. Therefore, they do not drink and drive. An element of it is that the behaviour is driven by the actions that are taken. I cannot say that such actions will definitely lead to a 10% decrease, but what I can say is that the blue-light services' concern forms part of the conversation around taking responsibility for our safety and that of others on the roads. The whole message could be diluted by a perceived de-emphasis on road safety care and the need for vehicle maintenance.

Mr McReynolds: I am on the Policing Board too. What level of detail did the PSNI go into in its response? You just reminded me of something. I did a ride-along with the police recently, and they said that the best time to test drivers is at 3.00 am. It is the "unreasonable person" test, because no one should be out at 3.00 am. That has a resourcing implication. Was that mentioned in their response, or did they very much stick to vehicle issues?

Mrs Cutrona: I have a few points here. They talked about the lack of resources or decreasing resources. They said that that had an impact on the number of roadside checks that could be completed. They did not raise the issue of time. They told us about the common defects that they see when they are doing it; things such as tyre wear and tear and braking system deterioration. Basically, they think that those kinds of things can significantly deteriorate over a year if people do not give them due regard. They also mentioned public perception and compliance with the current annual system: everyone knows that they have their annual MOT every 12 months, not every 24 months, and might be more compliant.

Mr McReynolds: OK. Lastly, you mentioned the World Health Organization data. Are the 2·4% for the UK and Northern Ireland and 2·8% in the South —?

Dr Hughes: It is not per cent; it is deaths per hundred thousand miles — fatalities per hundred thousand miles.

Mr McReynolds: Are other countries in Europe and across the world hovering around that figure? Are the figures of 4·7 for France and 5 for Italy at the other end of the scale? Can you expand on that?

Mrs Cutrona: The figures are 2·4 for the UK and 2·8 for Ireland. The next one up is Spain at 3·5. It is a reasonable jump from there. Sorry: Germany has 3·3. Portugal has the highest figure at 7·2. There is a range of figures in between.

Dr Hughes: The data that we looked at was for western Europe, because we know that, internationally, high-income countries have far fewer collisions than low-income countries.

Mrs Cutrona: And this is for fatalities, not just RTCs.

Dr Hughes: We are measuring like with like here, so it is fatalities per hundred thousand kilometres travelled.

Mr McReynolds: Obviously, the South has biennial testing. Does that data take into account rural fatalities, or did it expand on that?

Mrs Cutrona: No, it did not expand on it at all.

Mr McReynolds: No worries.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): OK. Thank you. Mark is online. There we go.

Mr Durkan: Thank you, Chair. You were keeping me muted there, inadvertently, I have to say.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I would never mute you, Mark. [Laughter.]

Mr Durkan: I hope not.

Thanks to the guys for coming in. It has been a very interesting evidence session. It is fair to say that there are no huge surprises in the consultation responses. They very much mirror responses to the previous call for evidence. My party had been pushing the issue, more so for some sort of action to improve efficiency in the system. It is fair to say that, subsequent to that, we have seen the introduction of TECs and huge improvements in the availability of appointments for MOTs. The wait time is away down. Maybe it is unfair to ask you guys this question: has the amount of money that is spent by the Department and DVA on MOT centres been reduced?

Dr Hughes: That is outside our bailiwick, I am afraid. I do not have data that I could offer on that at all, sorry.

Mr Durkan: If my memory serves me correctly from a previous session with people whose bailiwick it was, it had not. Obviously, no one wants to do anything that will compromise road safety or increase risk on our roads, but, even when those concerns are so great, we have still gone ahead with the temporary exemption certificates. Do you know what I mean? Have they been set aside? On the issue of insurance companies and, I suppose, their mastery of all the detail, as you were saying, Chris — I do not want to plant the seed with them, that is for sure — they must have been looking at TECs. Have we seen fluctuations in insurance costs for cars of a certain age when they are granted a temporary exemption certificate?

Mrs Cutrona: We do not have any information on that. I think that insurance companies were looking at TECs as being temporary in nature, but they did not discuss that when I met and engaged with them.

Dr Hughes: It is a fair point.

Mrs Cutrona: They did not discuss that with me at all.

Mr Durkan: How long can they be temporary for? For how long can the Department hold the position of, "OK, we're going to roll this out again and again"? The concern is that — it is a concern rather than a fear, because a fear is about loss of life — when they are done away with, we will go back to where we were.

Dr Hughes: That decision will need to be taken at the appropriate time. The rationale behind a temporary exemption certificate is that, as it says, it is temporary. Therefore, it is time-bound. The legislation requires there to be exceptional circumstances, so, by definition, that needs to be part of the rationale for the granting of temporary exemption certificates. The most recent ones were granted on the basis of there being an issue with the bringing online of the MOT centres. I will phrase myself carefully. There was an issue in that regard, which was going to be addressed and resolved, so, it was a time-bound issue. A new decision will need to be taken. I have not engaged on that, but your point is absolutely spot on. That is how they are. Each one is time-bound, and a new temporary exemption certificate decision needs to be taken.

Mr Durkan: On the same, or different, exceptional —

Dr Hughes: A judgement would need to be made.

Mr Durkan: — circumstances.

We need to see the information that is being collated from the current cohort of vehicles that have availed themselves of a TEC. Any change in legislation or policy has to be evidence-based, so, the more evidence that we can get, the better. A couple of other members have touched on the issue of how much mechanical failure or the condition of a car or vehicle ranks as a causation factor. If that is not being recorded properly, that is probably an issue that I and some of my colleagues on the Policing Board should bring up with the police. That has to be captured.

Mr K Buchanan: Thanks for coming along. I have a few questions. How many TEOs — certificates — are out there? I mean TECs. [Laughter.]

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I think that there are about four.

Mr Boylan: We are not dealing with lorries today, Keith.

Mr K Buchanan: Sorry, I mean TECs. How many TECs are there out there that should, theoretically, be tested?

Dr Hughes: I do not have that number.

Mrs Cutrona: DVA holds that information.

Dr Hughes: From memory, I think that about 1·2 million tests were required and that the DVA did about 1 million, so I think that it is in the region of 200,000.

Mr K Buchanan: We will call that a fifth, or slightly less. You said earlier, Dorcas, that 80% was the normal pass rate. All the vehicles with — I was about to say "TEO" again — TECs will come into the system. If that drops to 75%, what will that mean? I am not saying that mechanics are bad, but that could mean that you have bad mechanics. You could have cars that are not prepped properly for it. It might not mean that they are not maintained properly. What is that going to tell us?

Dr Hughes: It depends on the size of the cohort that you would be analysing. If —.

Mr K Buchanan: That is my point. What if it is 20%?

Dr Hughes: The DVA intends to separate out the cars that have a TEC, so 100% of the sample will be people who have a TEC. We will compare those who have a TEC with all cars, so, we will be able to see specifically what is happening with those. As I said to John earlier, depending on how long we wait until we press the button and say, "We've got sufficient data to tell us what's going on", that cohort will get bigger. However, when you are detecting a difference in a statistical sample, you need a big number if the difference is small, and you need a small number to get a degree of assurance if the difference is big. At this point, we just do not know what the extent is, but the numbers involved are big enough that we are able to say with some certainty that there is a difference that makes a difference, rather than just a difference that does not make a difference.

Mr K Buchanan: I am on the Policing Board as well. I think that all the members are here today. If a vehicle with a TEC is involved in an accident, is that recorded?

Mrs Cutrona: Not that I am aware of.

Dr Hughes: No.

Mr K Buchanan: It would, however, be recorded if the vehicle that caused the accident were faulty.

Dr Hughes: Yes.

Mr K Buchanan: Could that be dug into, if need be?

Dr Hughes: Possibly.

Mrs Cutrona: The PSNI keeps that information.

Mr K Buchanan: Where else in the UK and Ireland are tests done biennially?

Mrs Cutrona: It is just in Southern Ireland. Biennial testing has been in place there for a number of years. In GB, the MOT test is carried out at three years and then every year following that.

Mr K Buchanan: I will take the comparison with the South of Ireland. Today, if someone were to go to Cookstown or wherever to take an MOT test, it would take x amount of time, and they do x number of tests. If it were to be done biennially, would that situation change? Would the tests be longer and more —? What is the word? Not "intrusive".

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Stringent?

Mr K Buchanan: Stringent. Yes.

Dr Hughes: I would again defer to my DVA colleagues on that, who would be 100% certain. The MOT test is a European standard. We do a European standard test. The tests that we do have to meet —.

Mr K Buchanan: But the test in NI is different from the test in ROI.

Mrs Cutrona: Yes. The DVA has confirmed that the tests are not like for like. In the South, they do a more detailed emissions test that we do not carry out here, at this time.

Dr Hughes: Committee members will be aware that there is an issue with emissions testing here, but all the other things are set in European law.

Mr Boylan: That is fair enough. Emissions testing is a big issue.

Dr Hughes: You are the first person to mention it. There certainly has not been a suggestion of that. We are working through this, however, and that is welcome feedback about potentially looking at a more stringent MOT test. I suppose that the idea is that the MOT test assesses the roadworthiness of the vehicle at that point. If the vehicle is coming in for an MOT test, and it has been two years since its most recent MOT test, it will be about whether or not it is roadworthy.

Mr K Buchanan: John made a good point about mileage. There are people who do 25,000, 30,000 or 40,000 miles a year and other people who do 5,000 miles a year.

Dr Hughes: It depends on how well they maintain their vehicle.

Mr K Buchanan: It does, but, theoretically, more miles should lead to more damage.

Dr Hughes: That leads to more wear and tear, for sure.

Mrs Cutrona: That played out a little bit in the consultation. There was a strong showing in favour of biennial testing for private vehicles and motorcycles, but, for white goods vehicles —. Sorry, I mean light goods vehicles — I was thinking of white vans. [Laughter.]

Mr Boylan: The white van men will not be happy.

Mrs Cutrona: For light goods vehicles, about 42% were in favour of biennial testing, and 41% were not in favour. Those results are close. People realise that those types of vehicle may complete more mileage.

Dr Hughes: That is a very valid point. As Cathal said, the emphasis is on the responsibility being on the vehicle owner to maintain the vehicle in a roadworthy condition. You would hope that somebody who does 100,000 miles a year would replace their tyres more often and get a service more often than somebody who does less than that. Companies encourage the vehicle owner to do those things at certain trigger points. However, that is absolutely a legitimate point.

Mr K Buchanan: This is my final point. You talked about road safety. I mentioned that I am on the Policing Board. The road safety message is completely shot in Northern Ireland. It is all about "Road, road, road" and does not mention causation factors. We have to be very careful when we go down that method of road safety. If we say that biennial is fine, I think that we would be going down a dangerous road. All I see in media campaigns, now, is, "It is the road, it is the road, it is the road", but that is not what is killing people.

Dr Hughes: It is 95% human error.

Mr K Buchanan: That is correct. We need to be careful about that. We could pay a price for that, unfortunately. Thank you.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Thank you. A couple of things came to my mind during the discussion, linked to Keith's questioning. I do not want, today, to go down the route of talking about the privatisation of MOT testing in England, because it is not really part of this topic, but is that the case in Scotland and Wales, as well?

Mrs Cutrona: Yes, it is the case for GB.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I have some initial concerns about the privatisation of MOT testing. Is there any evidence from GB of the way in which that testing is carried out presenting an issue with regard to the roadworthiness of vehicles?

Dr Hughes: Successive Ministers have set their face against that. They have been very clear on that. If you go to the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) website, you will find fraud prevention measures on the home page. They recognise that fraud is inherent in their model and is a part of what their system delivers. They say, "Here is what we do to stop the fraud that is part of our system". Our MOT system is simply a pass/fail. I have never heard anybody question the integrity of whether that result is an accurate reflection of the condition of a vehicle. The computer says yes or no, and that is pretty much it.

I am aware that Ministers have been absolutely against privatisation. However, as you phrased the question in a road safety context, we know that the GB system, on its own home page, is saying that fraud is part of the system. We know that people are getting MOT certificates fraudulently. They have their figures for killed or seriously injured (KSI) per 100,000 miles and things like that, but, having looked at the two systems, that is an issue.

Mrs Cutrona: From a road safety perspective, they did a consultation in 2023 to look at whether they would move to MOT testing at four years, the same as us. The synopsis from that consultation led them to agree to keep it at three years. The reasons for that were mostly to do with road safety issues.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): As I said at the start, we all have a vested interest, as did anyone who replied to the consultation, for a variety of reasons. The business community raised concerns around what it would mean for garages. Will the Department carry out an impact assessment of biennial testing, independently of the garages and business side of things? Anecdotally, garages may raise concerns about loss of business, but will that be the case, particularly if people understand that they need to keep their cars roadworthy?

Mrs Cutrona: We got quite significant comments back from the automotive industry, including local businesses. There was an opportunity through the consultation for them to comment on how biennial testing might affect their business. Some said that they were concerned about potential loss of revenue. Some thought that they might have to let people go — not many, but a few. Some of them thought that, if people were not servicing their cars as often, they might have to put their prices up. We had very detailed information back from a lot of the representative umbrella groups. We received significant and very detailed responses, including from the National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA), the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the Independent Garage Association (IGA) and the National Tyre Distributors Association (NTDA). They all provided comprehensive and detailed information.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Given that you have received so much detailed information, will the Department carry out its own impact assessment of that data?

Dr Hughes: We would need to take that away and have a think about it. I have been sitting here thinking the whole time. I would need to give some thought to that.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): OK, fair enough.

Mark asked about the money that was spent on the MOT centres. I appreciate that that is not in your remit, but I am sure that there are conversations about that. The Department is looking to invest in MOT centres. My local MOT test centre is going through planning for a new centre. There are plans afoot to expand the existing MOT testing offering. We are waiting for two test centres to come on board. Is there a slight juxtaposition in that we bring in biennial testing and that potentially leads to some of the test centres being underutilised? I welcome the fact that we are increasing the number of MOT centres, but we have to look at it from a public purse perspective. We are spending money, but, potentially, the introduction of biennial testing could see the number of tests being reduced.

Dr Hughes: That is a very hard question. Yes, absolutely. It would require a detailed analysis. The other factor there is whether we are getting people to move away from using private cars as a vehicle. There are a lot of moving parts in that. I do not have the answer to that. It is an economic business case, and I just cannot answer that question.

Mrs Cutrona: We have thought about that, and we will engage with DVA and the Minister on it.

Dr Hughes: Yes. It is a very valid point and will take detailed analysis.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Cathal, were you looking in on that point?

Mr Boylan: I was, Chair. Thank you. I have three quick points to ask about. Is there any evidence to suggest that, say, in the South where the test is biennial, you get a more comprehensive service when the car goes into the garage, because they know that it is a biennial test? That is why I asked the question about a service for the MOT. That is the first question. That is something for conversation.

Mrs Cutrona: I do not know.

Mr Boylan: You do not have that information. It is just something that I bring up.

Mrs Cutrona: We have looked at the data of the National Car Test (NCT). It sits at around 52% for first-time test passing, and there is information on what it —.

Dr Hughes: Here it is 82%.

Mr Boylan: 100%. That is fair enough. The question is this: you could drive a car for 11 months, not look at it, and then put it into a garage for the mechanic to service it for the MOT; or you could do a check at six months. The same principle would apply if the test was every two years. You could drive it for 18 or 20 months, and then get the service done before the test. The NCT sits at 52%.

Dr Hughes: That is 30% lower.

Mrs Cutrona: The common things that cars fail the test on are tyres, brakes, suspension and lights.

Mr Boylan: That was my first question. The other point is about drivers and their behaviour towards the test. Going by the percentage that you mentioned, that means that they are leaving it. It is about changing attitudes. I am sorry to labour the point, Chair, and I appreciate that you say that you get the car serviced, but, if I went to get my car serviced tomorrow morning, I would fairly know what my car would be serviced for. It would not be ball joints or track rod ends or anything else that you need for MOT roadworthiness. That generally does not happen. Listen, I do not want to get into it, but you understand.

Mrs Cutrona: Your view is very much supported by the insurance bodies that said that there is always a number of unroadworthy vehicles on the road. As you said, people drive their car for 20 months, it is unroadworthy, and then, a couple of weeks before their MOT is due, they get it serviced, and, suddenly, it is roadworthy, when, for 20 months, it has not been. The insurance bodies said that the annual check will potentially reduce the number of unroadworthy cars at an earlier point than if the test were taken at 24 months.

Mr Boylan: I will finish with this, Chair. It is all about the driver taking responsibility for the vehicle. The vehicle should be roadworthy at all times. If you get an MOT certificate or a TE certificate, it will last for 12 months. The day after you leave the MOT centre, the car may or may not be roadworthy. There are always those arguments. I just wanted to trot that out.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Stephen is looking in on a quick point.

Mr Dunne: Just briefly. In the Republic of Ireland, the test is every two years for vehicles under 10 years old and then annually for vehicles after 10 years. Has there been any consideration of that sort of approach? It is a halfway house.

Dr Hughes: That is the proposal in the consultation. There was a range of options for when you would do biennial testing. Would you skip the test at five and seven, or at five, seven and nine? That was the range of options; it was pretty much exactly that. There seems to be a broad recognition. In the figures that Dorcas has, it is two plus two plus two, then one, one, one, one. Other European countries, at a point, start to test annually. Part of the consultation was looking at the range of options. Did people feel comfortable missing three MOTs in that or two? Younger cars are obviously expected to be more reliable.

Mr Dunne: Just a final point. We have seen quite a rise in the number of EVs. Is any data available on their MOT success rates?

Dr Hughes: Not that I am aware of.

Mr Dunne: OK, thanks.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Keith, you were looking to make a quick point.

Mr K Buchanan: I missed something that you said. Did you say that 52% were failing in the ROI?

Mrs Cutrona: In the South.

Mr K Buchanan: Did you say 52%?

Dr Hughes: Passing.

Mrs Cutrona: That is the percentage passing.

Mr K Buchanan: So it is roughly half.

Mrs Cutrona: Yes. At first test.

Mr K Buchanan: What was that figure before the biennials in the South?

Mrs Cutrona: I do not know.

Mr K Buchanan: That is a shocking statistic.

Dr Hughes: It is 82% here and the South is 52% for first-time passes. There is a 30 percentage point difference between the pass rate here and the pass rate in the South.

Mr K Buchanan: Do we know what those failures were?

Mrs Cutrona: That information is on its website, and it is for things such as broken lights, tyres, suspension and brakes. Those are not all the reasons, but they were the most common.

Mr K Buchanan: That figure of 52% is what we are taking away from the presentation.

Mr Boylan: At what age do cars have their first MOT in the South?

Mrs Cutrona: Four years.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Yes, it is the same.

Thank you very much for your time. Hopefully, you have some views to take away with you today. Certainly, the overarching theme coming from today's discussion is the road safety element, which, as a Committee, we are concerned about. We do not want to add to that, and it is about how we strike the balance and get things right.

Thank you very much. As we are now about to enter recess, I wish you a lovely summer. No doubt, we will see you when we come back again.