Official Report: Minutes of Evidence

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I welcome Jackie Robinson, director of transport regulation and public transport in the Department for Infrastructure; Linda Buick, head of the Department's public transport strategy branch; and Claire McKeown, from the same branch. The report has been well read by a number of people, so I am looking forward to your evidence.

Are members agreed that the evidence be recorded by Hansard?

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I invite you to make a brief opening statement of about five minutes, after which I will open the session to members' questions.

Ms Jackie Robinson (Department for Infrastructure): Thank you very much, Chair. I would like to start by thanking the Committee for the opportunity to brief you on the all-island strategic rail review.

The rail review, which is the first strategic review of rail of its kind on the island of Ireland, was announced jointly by the then Minister Mallon and Minister Ryan in 2021, and we developed it in partnership with our colleagues in the Department of Transport (DoT) in Dublin, with input from key stakeholders, including Translink, Irish Rail and the National Transport Authority (NTA).

The review sought to identify where the potential to improve and enhance rail services lay and, through an evidence-based assessment, developed a vision for a future rail network that would deliver on the goals of the review. Those goals included decarbonisation, intercity connectivity, regional and rural accessibility and sustainable mobility.

As part of the evidence-based approach, a high-level economic appraisal was carried out to help to ensure that the review's recommendations represent value for money. The final review report was published in July this year, as you well know. It includes 32 recommendations, which, if delivered in full, will transform rail services across this island through improvements such as new and reopened rail routes, higher speeds, increased frequencies and additional capacity, and it will connect more communities to the rail network in the process.

For Northern Ireland specifically, that will include new rail lines from Portadown to Armagh, Lisburn to Antrim, Belfast to Newry and Portadown to Derry/Londonderry. It will include new cross-border routes from Portadown to Mullingar and from Derry/Londonderry to Letterkenny, as well as new and improved rail connections to our airports, increased frequency and faster journey times.

The review report sets out a roadmap for delivering those transformational interventions over three periods: up to 2030, 2030 to 2040 and out to 2050. In doing so, it provides a framework for future investment decisions. However, more detailed work will be needed to prioritise and test the feasibility and affordability of the recommendations. The Minister is keen to deliver the ambitions of the rail review and is committed to progressing what he can in the remainder of the current mandate. Developing the recommendations will be challenging. The Department will need to explore all funding avenues, given the importance of this work to economic activity, connectivity, regional balance and the environment.

We recognise, as does the Minister, that many people will be disappointed by the omission of Fermanagh from the rail review. The Minister is committed to addressing regional imbalance. He will continue to explore opportunities to improve travel options for citizens in Fermanagh. The development of the regional strategic transport network transport plan (RSTNTP) and the Fermanagh and Omagh transport plans offers opportunities to consider the transport needs of the people of Fermanagh and how we best meet those needs. Those new plans are being developed over the period up to 2035 and will review transport needs on a multimodal basis. In addition, a new recommendation to update the review every 10 years has been included in the final report. The new recommendation will provide regular opportunities to reconsider the case for real connectivity to Fermanagh over the review period, allowing updated population growth figures and any new policy developments to be taken into account.

I now turn briefly to the next steps. Rail services on the island are already being developed towards the report's vision. Last week, we saw the introduction of an hourly train service between Dublin and Belfast, and the procurement process for the new, faster, more sustainable Enterprise train fleet from Belfast to Dublin has started.

The Department of Transport has secured support from the European Investment Bank (EIB) advisory service to help to progress the implementation of the rail review's recommendations. With the assistance of those EIB consultants, we are working with our Department of Transport colleagues, Translink, Irish Rail and the NTA to consider the recommendations and identify the real interventions that could be well advanced or delivered over the next decade. Translink already has a number of feasibility studies linked to the recommendations of the review under way. Those are due to report in the spring or summer of next year. They include four that were funded from the Union connectivity development fund: the reopening of the Antrim to Belfast line, with a link to the airport; the Armagh to Portadown line; the electrification of the Belfast line to the border; and an initial feasibility study of the Portadown to Derry/Londonderry line.

Chair, that was a very quick summary of the report and our consideration of the next steps. We welcome any questions.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): You get 10 gold stars: that was five minutes on the dot. Thank you very much for coming to the Committee. I will move straight to questions. What specific recommendations does the Department consider will be most beneficial to Northern Ireland?

Ms Robinson: The recommendations combine a variety of things, from reopening rail lines to increasing speed. One of the primary things that we will look at is decarbonisation. With decarbonisation, we will get a climate benefit and increased speeds on some of our lines. In reality, it will be a combination of lots of interventions that will help to develop our rail network. I would not specify one recommendation until the work of the EIB consultants is complete.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): OK. What recommendations does the Department not agree with or believe not to be deliverable?

Ms Robinson: All the recommendations come from evidence-based work carried out by consultants, and each recommendation will be looked at. We will look at their feasibility and at their viability from a business case perspective. At this stage, we are not ruling out anything that is included in the recommendations.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): So, do you agree that Fermanagh has been left out?

Ms Robinson: I would not say that Fermanagh has been left out. Fermanagh has not been included at this stage. When, however —.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): The first phase is for 10 years.

Ms Robinson: At this stage, Fermanagh has not been included. As you said, the final report recommendations include a new recommendation that we carry out stage reviews every 10 years. That will allow us to draw conclusions on the population and on the benefit of rail lines to Fermanagh. When we looked at the report, we saw that the high-level economic appraisal for Fermanagh was very poor, particularly the benefit-cost ratio (BCR). If we consider this as a package of measures for what we want to do, that would not have been economically viable; it is not one of the first things that we would consider within the current time frame.

There are lots of other options, one of which is to put a transport hub in Omagh with flexible bus connections between Omagh and Fermanagh, which would give access to a rail link in Omagh.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Omagh is in Tyrone.

Ms Robinson: It would give good connections to Fermanagh residents.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): How realistic is it to expect that the cost-benefit analysis will change by the time that the first update of the review comes around in 10 years?

Ms Robinson: I would not try to estimate what will happen in 10 years, to be honest. Another evidence-based review will look at population and policy changes. Bear in mind that the RSTNTP will be in place by then, which will already have looked at multimodal transport options, and we will also have the Fermanagh and Omagh transport plan in place. When we look at those holistically, they will give us a good evidence base. At that stage, we will not be looking back; we will be looking forward. To be honest, I cannot tell you how realistic that analysis might be in 10 years' time.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): You talked about the development of the transport plan in Fermanagh. This came up when you were talking. Correct me if I am wrong. I looked through the transport plan in the summertime, and, if my memory serves me well, rail is not talked about anywhere in the development plan. How long is that development plan for transport to last?

Ms Robinson: The Fermanagh and Omagh development plan covers up to 2035. The Fermanagh and Omagh plan will not necessarily look at rail. The regional strategic transport plan will look at multimodal options: it will look at the strategic network, including rail. Hopefully, the two of those together will provide answers on multimodal transport.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): You can see where my cynicism about the transport plan comes from. I am thinking about 10 years from now and the fact that the transport plan does not even include certain things. Potentially, we will look at this in 10 years' time, given that it has a time frame of up to 2035. You can see where my cynicism comes from.

Ms Robinson: Would it help if I were to explain how the consultants got to the point that they did?

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Yes, if you could touch on that briefly, although, to be fair, it is widely contained in the report.

Ms Robinson: As a starting point, the consultants identified a longlist of potential interventions that were drawn from information on the ground, from the project team, from the high-level steering group that I was a member of and from feedback during the initial public consultation. Following that, interventions that were outside the scope of the review, such as commuter services, were sifted out. Interventions that did not serve the strategic movement corridors and connectivity opportunities identified at an early stage of the review and those that did not align with the existing policy were also sifted out. Any that would have an adverse environmental impact on areas of outstanding natural beauty were also sifted out, as were interventions that targeted towns or areas with low potential demand.

Interventions were subsequently combined into seven key packages. Prior to that, all the interventions had been assessed against the goals and objectives of the review. The packages were then assessed at economic appraisal stage. The economic appraisal included consideration of the costs and benefits, and it showed that some packages performed well while others did not. The project team combined the best-performing elements of each of the seven packages and formed an eighth package. The rail line from Enniskillen to Omagh was assessed as one of the seven packages but was not selected, because it was not one of the best-performing packages. The cost-benefit analysis of that showed a ratio of about 0·1, whereas we were looking at a cost-benefit ratio of about 1 for economic benefit. The cost of a rail line between Enniskillen and Omagh, which is a single line track of 40 kilometres, is approximately £335 million. On that basis, it has not gone forward at this stage. As I said, in 10 years' time, that will be reassessed on the basis of what has happened between now and then.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): I am Chair of the Committee, but I am also a DUP MLA for Fermanagh and South Tyrone. We are so keen to ensure that there is decarbonisation and a modal shift. I really think that that decision was a missed opportunity for a council area that has one of the highest proportions of car usage, given that one of the key areas of the review was decarbonisation. I understand how the consultants reached their position, but you are not consultants. From a departmental point of view, leaving Fermanagh out of the recommendations was a missed opportunity.

I want to ask one more question before other members come in. With the likes of the A5, we have seen issues with land and the development of infrastructure projects. When you look at the feasibility of increasing our rail services, do you also look at planning in regard to land that may be needed for the development of rail, particularly in the context of the 10-year timescale that you mentioned for each stage?

Ms Robinson: The rail review recommended safeguarding corridors and key stations to ensure that corridors in the review period were protected to accommodate new rail lines. The development of the councils' local development plans (LDP) provides an opportunity for councils to safeguard disused transport routes for future transport purposes. At this stage of the development of the local policy plans (LPP), which deal with land use and zoning, councils can identify the precise disused routes. The development of transport plans by the Department also offers an opportunity to assess the need for continued protection of such routes. They will be considered in the LPP process.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Thank you.

Mr Stewart: Thanks very much for your presentation.

The plan has a high number of priorities across a number of years. Are those assessed on need, cost or economic impact, and how are they triaged to determine what will be delivered and in what order?

Ms Robinson: Are you asking about the phasing?

Mr Stewart: Yes, the phasing and how it is spelled out.

Ms Robinson: You are talking about what we will deliver in what the report considered to be the short, medium and longer term. A lot of the work that we are doing with the EIB will help us to do that. Linda, do you want to come in?

Ms Linda Buick (Department for Infrastructure): Since the report was published in July of this year, we have been working with our colleagues in the Department of Transport. They secured support from the European Investment Bank advisory service to appoint a team of consultants to look at the next steps. Along with the EIB consultants, we are working with our DoT colleagues, Translink, Irish Rail and the NTA. That involves identifying what has already been committed in each jurisdiction to this point and then looking at the interventions and recommendations in the review. The initial focus will be on what has the potential to be delivered by 2035, what would be involved in that and establishing the sequencing of when you might need to have received all of the necessary approvals etc if you want to deliver by 2035. The roadmap in the rail review will set out in a little more detail the projects that might be delivered or be well advanced by 2035. The next piece of work will be looking out to 2050. That is the first stage, but, as the rail review has highlighted, each of the recommendations will be subject to feasibility studies to look in more detail at the demand, the exact routes and all of that. This will need to go through a number of stages, but the EIB work is the first one that will help to set out which initial projects might be delivered by 2035.

Mr Stewart: There is the potential that, although a project would have a high economic impact, there is no budget for it, so, effectively, it does not make it on to the table. Another project that could have a significantly positive climate impact might, because it is not affordable, not score highly. Is that fair?

Ms Buick: The rail review has set out a roadmap and identified projects to 2030, between 2030 and 2040 and between 2040 and 2050. That looked at the scale of the projects, how long it might take to deliver them etc and what might be needed for their delivery. All the recommendations in the review will probably have their own benefits; all were assessed against the goals of the review. Each of them will deliver economic benefits and climate benefits. It is about trying to look at both but taking deliverability, within the time frame, into account.

Mr Stewart: I will touch on two of the projects: one is the electrification of the line. Our lines are the worst in Europe, I believe, when it comes to electrification. Talk us through the feasibility work that has been done on that so far, a time frame and the implicated costs. Has there been an assessment of those things yet?

Ms Robinson: On electrification, as I mentioned, Translink is carrying out a feasibility study and looking at the feasibility between Belfast and the border, specifically in relation to the Enterprise. Part of the work that the European Investment Bank is doing will be a decarbonisation strategy for the island of Ireland. That is important because it gives a roadmap for us across the island. We have cross-border services, so it is important to make sure that, going forward, we have that as a building block. I do not have to hand what the costs of that might look like, so, sorry, I cannot answer that question.

Mr Stewart: Maybe you could get that to us. I am just trying to get at how feasible that might be.

Ms Robinson: Two things that we want to look at — it goes back to the prioritisation question — are the time frame and how deliverable the projects are. Electrification will definitely help with journey times on the Belfast to Dublin line, but one of the other things that will help is the four-tracking of the lines from Dublin to the North. When you are on the Enterprise, you often find that the interactions between the Dublin Area Rapid Transport (DART) system and the Enterprise mean that services can be delayed. That fundamental measure may happen in Ireland, but, ultimately, it will help the rail connectivity between Belfast and Dublin as well. EIB will help us to look at that wider prioritisation piece.

Mr Stewart: OK. Chair, if I may, my final question is about the accessibility of our airports. Obviously, we have very limited rail access. In fact, there is no rail access to the International Airport and Londonderry airport. Do you have any assessment of that portion of work's feasibility and time frame? The economic impact of those could be significant.

Ms Robinson: A feasibility study is ongoing about reopening the Knockmore line, which is the line between Lisburn and Antrim. Part of that work will look at a spur going to the International Airport. That study is due to report in springtime. Hopefully, we will hear more details about it at that stage. That will give a better indication of how we might link to the airport, the other stops that there might be along that line and the cost of doing it. I do not have that information at this stage.

On City of Derry Airport, as you are probably well aware, there is an upgrade of the existing line between Belfast and the north-west. One of the feasibility studies on the next stage of that upgrade is looking at where there might be stops. One of the stops that is being considered is at Eglinton, City of Derry Airport.

Mr Stewart: Thank you.

Mr Boylan: Jackie, welcome back to the Committee. Thanks very much for the presentation. I have a couple of comments. I welcome the new hourly service between Dublin and Belfast, but my key point is about the Armagh to Portadown line. Can you comment further on the vision for that, please?

Ms Robinson: As you are aware, the Department part-funded a feasibility study on the Armagh to Portadown line with the council in that area. An initial feasibility study on that line has been undertaken. Translink is now doing more detailed work. Feasibility studies happen in a couple of stages. The first stage is a very high-level review of how feasible the project is. The next stage will look at what the route should be and how easy or difficult doing it will be. It will give us a potential cost of the project as well. That work is ongoing. I keep saying that everything is due in spring/summer of next year. They will all probably come somewhere between the first and second quarters of next year. Spring/summer is the best time frame that I can give you for that feasibility study too.

Mr Boylan: It will be much welcomed. There has been a strong lobby group for it for many years, as you know, and I certainly welcome it. I feel sorry for the Chair and those over her way, but that lobby group has been fighting hard, and it is most welcome.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Thank you, Cathal.

Mr Dunne: Thank you, folks, for the presentation. I will stay on the theme of airport connectivity. I welcome the clear commitment in the review on a number of airports, particularly George Best Belfast City Airport. I am keen to hear a bit more about it. Currently, we have the dangerous situation where passengers from across the world and Europe have to walk up the Sydenham bypass, often in poor weather conditions. I am sure that you have seen that. What is the time frame for action on improving the Sydenham station? I know that it is a priority and that it is in writing in front of us, which is good to see, but what level of priority is it being given? Is it part of the spring commitment as well? Will we see action on it within a reasonable time frame?

Ms Buick: That is another feasibility study that Translink has ongoing. It is looking to improve pedestrian access at George Best Belfast City Airport and to see whether that would be best done at the existing halt or a new halt. That is being looked at, and the feasibility study is due to report early next year.

Mr Dunne: Is there nothing further on the time frame or the level of priority? Is it relatively realistic?

Ms Robinson: One of the things that we will have to look at in that will be the cost and what the best option is. The feasibility study will obviously look at that. You mentioned the safety of pedestrians. There are potential options involving a new halt or the use of an existing halt. We may look at examples from around the world of people movers, bus connections or other options. The feasibility and the cost-benefit analysis of all those options will be taken into account.

Mr Dunne: Thank you. I look forward to more progress on that.

Mr McMurray: I have two quick questions. You made a point about improving connectivity. Is thought going into improving bus connections and greenway cycle infrastructure links to the new train stations? That is my first question. My second question relates to the report's reference to a £17 billion boost to the island. Is there a Northern Ireland-specific aspect to that stimulus? Is any financial number attributed to that?

Ms Robinson: I am going to take your second question first, because I am not sure of the answer. Linda, I am not sure whether you know if that figure has been broken down to Northern Ireland specifically. I do not think it has.

Ms Buick: We do not have that.

Ms Robinson: We do not have that information.

On multimodal journeys and connectivity, the Department's vision is to have transport hubs with multimodal connections between them. Grand Central station is the first into which we have started to see those connections. We are going to see more active travel links and better pedestrian access to it as well. A future development that we will see on that site over the next year is bike hire: public bike hire will be available there. It will potentially have car hire — car club-type things — as well as taxi stops. As the Department rolls these things out and looks at the transport plans, we will definitely be looking at that. It is high on the priority list.

Mr McMurray: Thank you.

Mr Durkan: Thank you, ladies, and welcome to the Committee. I welcome the progress to date. My party championed the all-island strategic rail review for a long time, and I am glad to see it get to this stage. It is now about how we move beyond this stage and to delivery. That will be the real proof of the pudding.

You said that the Minister is keen to see as much progress as possible in the rest of this mandate, which is another two and a half years. Realistically, how do you think that progress will look? What do you envisage can be done in that time? We are talking about having another review or relook in 10 years, but I do not know how much will be done between then and now. The Chair described herself as cynical. I am maybe even more so at times, and a lot of that is due to the delays we have seen on previous rail commitments in my neck of the woods. The total cost has been identified, at 2023 prices, as £29 billion between now and 2050. The biggest driver of cost is delay, so we really need to get on the ground as soon as possible if we are to do this as efficiently as possible. Where do you see the priorities? What can be delivered fast?

Ms Robinson: With the rail network, it is difficult to deliver fast. We are talking about major build schemes in most areas, unless we reopen —

Mr Durkan: I should have said "first" instead of "fast".

Ms Robinson: There are a number of things that we can do, including building capacity on the network and increasing the frequency of trains. As I have mentioned a couple of times, we have a number of feasibility studies ongoing. We hope to have a pipeline of work as those feasibility studies progress. Although I have mentioned at least four feasibility studies, they are all at different stages. We talked about the Portadown to Armagh one. That is a much more detailed feasibility study than, for example, the one being done on Portadown to the north-west hub, which is an initial-stage feasibility study. We are already starting to see a pipeline of things that are in development and at feasibility study stage. The EIB will help us to prioritise and focus on that work over the next 10 years.

However, you are right: one of the big, challenging things will be finding the money to do it. We will be looking to all sources of funding, whether it is Union connectivity, UK funding, Shared Island Fund funding or funding from the Executive, and I know how challenging that will be over the next number of years. As we come forward with firm proposals, and once those feasibility studies are concluded, we will be able to work with a level of confidence in the figures. At the moment, we probably do not have that. One of the first things that we will look at and prioritise is decarbonisation and electrification.

Mr Durkan: I also share the Chair's frustration that —

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Mark, if you do not mind, can you come to your question as quickly as you can, please?

Mr Durkan: — it has not gone as far into the west as we would have liked: to Fermanagh and, indeed, Sligo. Do you share my concern — you might not view it as a concern — that the low-hanging fruit or the early spend and targets will be based in and around Belfast, given that that is where the services and structures are currently best? It is an all-island rail review, and we want to see connectivity to and from all parts of the island, particularly those that have been underserved.

Ms Robinson: I think that we can join it up. The Portadown to Armagh line is in preparation for links into Mullingar. The Portadown to the north-west route is the start of links into Letterkenny. We are already starting to think about those cross-border routes. We will continue to do that, and we will continue to do it with our Southern counterparts. You are right: it is on an all-island basis. However, where we are thinking about best value for money and giving more people access to rail, that will happen in centres of population. Rail best serves mass transport that moves large numbers of people. We need to balance that.

Mr Durkan: Finally, one of the feasibility studies that you mentioned is on the Derry-Coleraine line and the potential for additional halts at City of Derry Airport, Strathfoyle and Eglinton. That is predicated, though, on the delivery of phase 3 of the Derry-Coleraine line, which we have seen slip and slip. Are you in a position to give an update on where that is at?

Ms Robinson: That is an enhancement programme. It is a collective of rail infrastructure work. It will, hopefully, help to maximise the potential efficiencies of the service. It is looking to maximise opportunities for greater connectivity, to decrease journey times and, potentially, to provide new halts. New halts will require passing loops and line-speed enhancements. Translink plans to submit a strategic outline case on that to the Department by summer 2025.

Mr Durkan: Thank you.

Mr Boylan: I want to comment quickly on the feasibility studies, because they are important. They are designed to do a certain thing. We need to be thinking outside the box on the challenges. It is not just about the straightest routes from point A to point B. Conversations about challenges in planning, dealing with communities and everything else have to be part and parcel of what, we hope, will be the outcome. We need to learn from the past. That is all I am saying. I take it that that is part of the conversation as well.

Ms Robinson: We will be having those conversations.

Mr Boylan: Thank you.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): You will be glad to hear that there are no more questions from other members.

There was a lot of discussion there about the feasibility studies that are happening — there are quite a few of them. It would be good to get a breakdown of the timescales for those. You talked about spring and summer, but can we get a breakdown of the timescales of exactly when those feasibility studies will come back and of where the funding elements are likely to come from? You said that the Union connectivity review is funding some of the feasibility studies, but it would be good to see some of the detail in and around the outworkings of implementation of the feasibility studies.

Ms Robinson: We will come back to you on that in writing. To caveat, a lot of those feasibility studies are a bit of a moveable feast, so I am unlikely to be able to come back with a specific date for them to be finalised, but we will do our best.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Super. Thank you. I appreciate that. How much funding did you receive for those feasibility studies from the Union connectivity review?

Ms Robinson: For the feasibility study on electrification of the railway between Belfast and the border, £3·3 million was received. For the feasibility study on reopening the Knockmore-Antrim line, the figure was £0·7 million. For the feasibility study on the Portadown to Armagh railway extension, it was £0·8 million. For the feasibility study on the new line from Portadown to the north-west, it was £0·5 million. As I said, that one was a very high-level, initial feasibility study.

The Chairperson (Mrs Erskine): Thank you. No doubt, as the feasibility studies come back, we will have you at the Committee again. I look forward to seeing Fermanagh included in 10 years' time, if not before. Thank you for your time today. We really appreciate it.

Ms Robinson: Thank you.